Boiling frog manoeuvre, brief outlline

Military strategy of ‘boiling frog manoeuvre’ has been executed in the known history many a times. Mongols were the masters of this manoeuvre which they adopted effectively during the battle for Baghdad in 1258 A.D by sieging the city completely and making life miserable for the dwellers of Baghdad.

Transcending from military to geoeconomics, boiling frog has been carried out by America against the Soviet Union with good result. It is pertinent to mention that Soviet Union collapsed on the Christmas day in 1991 not due to any military weakness but due to the geoeconomics burden imposed upon her by the West.

Fast forward in 24 February 2022, when Russia commenced her special military operations against Ukraine, America led West decided to make a repeat performance of boiling frog 2.0. But this time there was a terrible miscalculation on the part of the West.

Let me say few words about the boiling frog manoeuvre. This is all about placing a frog in a vessel with cold water and boil it slowly so that the frog does not know what is happening around it. Perhaps it is thankful for the guys who put it in warm water to have little fun. Gradually and slowly water getting hot being not  felt by the frog until such time it is heated to death.

Vladimir Putin like the Peter the Great is well versed in the way Europe behaves in industry & commerce. Expecting how the West would act, he has made prior arrangements to move his industrial and commercial trade towards East to Asia and towards South to Persia and Mid-East and further deep into Africa and Latin America.

As the West tightened the grip over geoeconomics side with sanctions, shutting out Russia from international financial medium, barring her to use US Dollar and further mounting diplomatic measures culminating in getting a warrant for arrest issued by International Criminal Court, the expectation in the Western camp was to secure strategic defeat of Russia by using boiling frog method.

Let me go back to the boiling frog manoeuvre. Observers of this manoeuvre have found out that the proverbial frog in this connection could easily sense the change in temperature and try to get out from the vessel by jumping out. Remember, in boiling one cannot keep a lid closed over the vessel.

Since Putin has already had counter measures in operation, the Western manoeuvre failed to reach its purpose. The boiling frog in geoeconomics boomeranged on America and the West who are now undergoing the similar fate of being boiled as frogs!

Lesson: Geoeconomics is a two way sword!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Little known side of Thomas Jefferson

The Third president of United States, Thomas Jefferson is known as Founding Father of America as he was the principal author of the Declaration of Independence in 1776. There is little known fact about his being a great strategist.

I am giving you seven quotes by Thomas Jefferson and how it was carried out in the recent past by Vladimir Putin who is now eulogised as shining star in political, military and business strategy:

1. Experience is the teacher of all things: Putin as a savvy strategist had a whale of a lot of experience beginning as a spy transcending as aide for political leaders, coaching the Russian Mafia, leading from behind with political acumen and now heading the Russian Federation.

2. The wise man does not give the right answer, he poses the right question: Putin does not talk off the cup. He reads a prepared speech which was derived after his asking his aides questions after questions. These sessions are so duelling that the final print ready for public announcement is terse and a no-nonsense affair.

3. If there is no enemy within, the enemy outside can do no harm:  Putin led Russian team has eliminated almost all of the opposition to his one man rule inside. Furthermore, sleeping assets alias moles from enemy countries residing within Russia are quickly identified and eliminated.

4. A wise man makes more opportunities than he finds: When the West imposed sanctions on Russia, Putin saw it as an opportunity to move away from the west. Now opportunities galore not only in Asia, Africa and Latin America but also in countries that are once staunch supporters of the west in Eastern Europe. Hungary is one example!

5. One minute of patience, ten years of peace:  Despite repeated provocations, Putin keeps his patience and makes the right moves. The blast by Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missile at Dnipro Ukraine is a recent example how his patience gives dividends.  One shot all the rabbits are scurrying into their holes.

6. Use your enemy’s hand to catch the snake: This classics strategic manoeuvre was used when Putin coalesced with three countries in a row, Turkey, Iran and later North Korea. Turkey in NATO; Iran in Mid-East; North Korea in Pacific. America cannot handle all three even she is the greatest charmer!

7. Always look for the fool in the deal. If you don’t find one, it is you: Russia under the watch of Putin is not going to do any deal with Trump or any other western leaders. Neither is he going to be a fool himself. So Ukraine war will be settled in the battlefield. Militarily speaking he has the upper hand. What about geoeconomics? You guessed is right he is going to make America the tom fool!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

 

Five threats faced by BRICS

Any person or institution faces opportunities and threats at one and the same time.  Here is my analysis of the five significant threats faced by BRICS in terms of business strategy and geoeconomics:

1. The posture of USA is the first in line in threat perception. Being number one power America is not going to stand down easily without offering a fight overtly and covertly. The perception that any alternative form in geoeconomics where USA is not the lead party is anathema to Americans in general and the White House in particular. In this regard, USA has plethora of counter measures. Trade flow, currency flow investment flow are three avenues where America can checkmate BRICS members in terms of geoeconomics power play.

2. EU is next in importance. As a group EU accounts for 16% of the World GDP and in currency terms USD 20 Trillion nominal and USD 28 Trillion in purchasing Power Parity (PPP). More pertinent is the manufacturing output approximately 22% of global share contributed by employing 28.5 million workers via 2 million enterprises. In addition to trade volume the Euro as a currency   could be effectively used as weapons in a one to one fight.

3. Bretton Wood sisters originally twins i.e., the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB) got another adopted sister in the form of Bank for International Settlements (BIS) christened as specialized agencies of the United Nations are out there as wolves in waiting for some easy prey. In hunting the discerning wolf looks for the weak one out of the herd to pounce upon. BRICS may sound as a united front but there are strong as well as weak members. It so happened that Saudis at the final moment declined to join the then proposed 10 member group causing the figure to be one down at nine.

4. Alternate to BRICS could emerge as soon as possible. The former global power centre ‘non-alignment’ can be dusted and brought up to the fore by vested interest which in an earlier occasion rendered it useless. The prompt action by the powers to be, knocking off Argentina from signing off with BRICS is a recent memory. There are enough countries in Africa and Latin America that could be corralled to bite the bait and become members of a new alternate group with blessings from all three interested parties, America, EU and the Bretton Wood sisters.

5. Finally it is the Trojan War to be replayed once gain by the introduction of the new Trojan Horse that might open the gates for the anti-BRICS forces to enter directly and indirectly in subverting the goals and objectives of this group and finally lead to its demise as we have seen happening in the last few decades where every attempt to demolish unipolar world met with similar fate. Which country in the BRICS could be the Trojan Horse? Your guess is as good as mine. In the geoeconomics arena anything could happen. Let’s wait and see how the western business strategy to unseat BRICS play out!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist