How to break Russian resolve?

A trillion dollar question for the White House and The Hill for more than 78 years since the end of WWII is how to break Russian resolve. A temporary respite in the wake of collapse of Soviet Union had a balming effect yet it lasted a decade or so. America failed to turn this as an opportunity to come to terms with rump Russia on equal footing.

The result is Russia has become more than the bear she represents. And the issue is back on the drawing table of decision makers in Pentagon and State Department putting their brains to get some light at the end of the tunnel. Here are the highlights of, say, the time tested policy tools the guys over there repeating forever.

Sanctions is the most sought after tool that has wider implications in areas of finance, trade and exchange mechanism in addition to diplomatic pressure. As of today Russia has the pride of the place as the most sanctioned country in the world. Expelling from SWIFT and barring the use of US Dollars by Russia as exchange mechanism, storing of value and deferred payments were thought to be the most effective ways to throttle Russia and her economy.

Breaking resolve really means breaking trade flows to and from Russian hinterland. Exports of both American and European goods & technology to Russia was severely curtailed. Cash cow of Russia being oil & gas was the next target. Completely stopping or failing which capping the price of crude oil and natural gas exported from Russian sources was dovetailed to make the blow harder.

Proxy war ranking third in the order of importance yet the most expensive one to operationalize continues in several theatres. Ukraine saw these operations beginning in earnest from 2014 where the seeds were originally planted in 2004. Arming Nazi type of rebellion it brought forward avidly anti-Russian group bent upon destroying Russian culture, language and the people who speaks Russian in the East, south and North-east of Ukraine. This goes on without any abatement.

Next in order, is the grey zone operations which America conducts often with allies and willing partners, the notable one being the blasting of Nord Stream pipelines in the Baltic Sea that supplied natural gas to Germany and via her to many parts of Europe culminated in bringing the western economy to zero growth?

Image demolition is a key element in breaking Russian resolve. Majority of people living in the western hemisphere believe that Russia is evil and must be dealt with as such. After barrage of false info and showing Russia and her leaders in bad light for the last couple of centuries it is natural for the devil image to creep into the minds of many.

Taking the battle to the capital is the epitome of the series of breaking resolve operations. Attempting assassination of Putin recently is an apt example. After failing to incite Russians to rise against Moscow admin this salvo is a natural follow-up action on the part of America.

Final nail on the coffin is to isolate Russia diplomatically. So far Americans were unable to find such a coffin for them in the first place to nail it down.

Despite all these measures and actions still Russia is going strong. Her resolve is intact. There are two guarding angles protecting Russia: one is her geoeconomics and the other is the “Soul of the Russ” that sprouted in Kiev (now in Ukraine) after its capture by Prince Oleg of Novgorod pervading throughout Russian Federation!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

US dreads being number two

Of late, American establishment spends sleepless nights thinking about events unfolding around her challenging the scared myth of America being number one. Ukraine war had the butterfly effect by heralding multi polar world with the dreaded fact that USA has to give way to China her number one slot. But America is not going to give up that easily. Here are pointers where her resolve is being tested:

At present the main strength of US being counted as number one is her potency in technology advance and its implementation in production process where most, if not all new gadgets came out of US factories located within USA. Steadily this advantage is being eroded as US shifted production base to East Asia. Taiwan, South Korea and to great extent to the newly opened China.

Even though most patents regarding these products are still held by US, China is slowly overtaking US as regards to registration of new patents and also the development of alternate internet gateway patented by China that would replace android and google in the coming years.

Connected to thereto, but having its own status is the long-held policy of protecting sensitive production process within shores and passing it to trusted allies and partners who are beholden to US and restricting transfer of these processes to countries that do not toe the line such as Russia as well as where the host is a peer competitor such as China.  

Surprisingly, this policy gave a much needed flip for both Russia and China to build research & design institutions along with factories to bring out better ones than America has so far showcased. Russia in the case of military hardware & software and China in modern gadgets and equipment in wide areas including white goods, electronics in consumer segments, information and communication in techno and improved methods in farming & agriculture.

Once upon the time, Asians visited America in droves to see her buildings, airports, railways and the wide roads. This is because America had a solid production base to add continuously to her infra-structure. When the business strategy of lead sector changed from production to services, all things went awry: American consumers preferred cheap China goodies as a result domestic production dropped drastically due to high cost factor. The society was transformed to consumerism and the idea to live from one pay cheque to the other is order of the day.

Both Russia and China seized upon this fact. Russia started to build roads and bridges to connect with her wider space stretching from Eastern Europe to Kamchakta peninsula. China, had much enlightened thought though. She not only built fast train and macadamised roads but perched on the pivot of poverty alleviation programme that ended by uplifting more than 200 million people from poverty line.

The sum result is summarized here: While Americans are consuming by way of increasing their debt, Russians and Chinese are spending from their surplus income after saving substantial part for future.

Here lies the dread: Before long America would be number two!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist