Kaliningrad fiasco, Quo Vadis?

Lithuania has just disturbed the hornets’ nest by blocking Russian goods passing via railway through her territory. Recognised as Russian enclave in Baltic Sea since end of World War II, connectivity between Kaliningrad Oblast and the mainland Russia is sacrosanct. Where is Lithuania heading: Quo Vadis?

Sanctions regime imposed by EU over Russia stipulates banning of certain categories of goods exported from Russia to EU countries. Taking this as broad license to kill and also instigated by both America & NATO, Lithuania has imposed blanket application of the sanctions blocking more than 50% of goods that traverse from Russia to the enclave.

Firstly, there is no such thing as export to Kaliningrad because the Oblast per se is a territory of Russia albeit without a direct land border. Under international law & practice no such blocking is tenable as there is no actual export taking place. Technically it is domestic transport of goods between two territories of a sovereign nation. 

Any violation of the international law could constitute a casus belli. Citing it as a cause for battle Russia has the right to intervene militarily to set the matter right. Furthermore under United Nations R2P (Right to Protect) Russia has every right to protect her citizen in her westernmost Federal State of Russia.

Kaliningrad passed into the hands of Soviet Union at the conclusion of World War II. Originally founded in 1255 A.D., Kaliningrad which was known earlier by her German name Konigsberg was the easternmost part of Prussian Empire and lately Nazi Germany. It hosts the Baltic Sea Head Quarters of the Russian Navy.

There are three ways to reach this oblast. From St. Petersburg, port city of Northern Russia via Baltic Sea. Secondly through land border crossing both Latvia and Lithuania. Third one cutting across Belarus and then Lithuania which is the shortest route. Under international convention Russia has the right to choose the shortest route possible and in this case Belarus, Lithuania to final destination of Kaliningrad is the one opted for.

Lithuania taking cover under EU sanctions, stated that she is only implementing EU regulations and not her own design. Meanwhile, as the matter started boiling, EU has announced measures to relax regulations regarding passage of Russian goods via Lithuanian territory to and fro Kaliningrad. Russia has made her displeasure known in no uncertain terms. 

What happens next is going to be crucial for business strategy and geoeconomics. What happens if Russia orders blockade of Lithuania in the Baltic Sea citing security reasons? Or as can happen in the wildest dreams possible, begin to station thermo-nuclear weapons over the border of Belarus and Lithuania? Whatever it is, Lithuania appears not to know where she is really heading for!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

 

Russian business strategy gets windfall western artillery

If business strategy can help getting windfall profit, which firm or country would hesitate to go for it? Arms manufacturing is a high-profit business. If one gets expensive weapons cheaply then it’s so much the better. In Ukraine theatre, Russia is doing just that. 

So far Russia has got her hand on 155 MM self-propelled howitzers made by France, Germany, Norway & Canada in persecuting Ukraine war.  The prized item, however, is the high mobility artillery rocket system (HIMRAS) made in USA. Whereas quite some are captured from enemy position in the operational area most of these have been bought over from the army itself using buying agents who are loyal to Russia. The role played by oligarchs, in this regard cannot be under-estimated. 

Self-propelled howitzers that are obtained in this way and squarely placed in the store of Russian armed forces include Caesar of France, PzH of Germany, M109 of Norway and M777 of Canada.  Needless to say, this bounty is a great treasure acquired by Russia in the course of the war in Ukraine. A key official from Russian armed forces needled French President Emmanuel Macron calling on him to provide few more of Caesar 155 MM artilleries to Ukraine.

Putting it on the business track, obtaining of such advanced artillery pieces gives Russia a big edge in fine-tuning her own production line. By the process of reverse engineering she can come out with most modern version of her own branded artillery and at the same time affording her with defensive postures that could devastate the western models in action not only in Ukraine but elsewhere globally.

The best part, possibly is the technology transfer from west to east where no intellectual property right claims could ever be maintained by the host nations against Russia as none of these were procured via international commercial contracts.

More interestingly, Russia would be abler to supply the same weaponry suitably amended to willing buyers elsewhere. Under the international law finders are owners of any booty. Hence what emerges clearly from this windfall is Russia not only winning military war but technology one too, thanks for her brilliant business strategy!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Flex muscle yet negotiate for compromise

In real world of business negotiation, flexing muscle is often resorted to, to bring counterparty to negotiation table. Once parties are in parley it is left to the chief negotiators of parties to set agenda and sail through so that mutually acceptable end is achieved. But there remains slips betwixt cup and lip:

Delay & drag is not uncommon in business negotiation. Henry Kissinger famously quipped re negotiating with the Chinese: “If they come to the point quickly then, they are not be Chinese!” Lot of time is spent in setting the agenda, place, status & number of negotiators along with time limitation. The latter is for initial introductory meeting afterwards leaders of both teams decide the next meeting, time span and how to proceed.

Opening scene always begins with a solemn commitment for a negotiated settlement acceptable to both parties. Expectedly, each party has its top-line & bottom-line. Seasoned negotiators do not easily spell out their bottom-line. Despite high sounding palliatives there is a pall of silence falling on the bottom- line as this must remain elusive till last stages.

However, one way out of the situation is the willingness of stating the red-lines which technically means the position that a party wish to hold and wish counterparty to respects as well. None the less, redlines are never fixated. There could be some leeway as business negotiation moves forward.

Flexing muscle and at the same time be ready to negotiate is a feature that characterizes a strong party in a tete-a-tete. America did just that with China as Kissinger embarked on his mission to meet Chinese officials including Chairman Mao Zedong. Here America exhibited projection of force along with her willingness to settle for a compromise. 

Kissinger knew the existence of too many differences between America and China, but he was deftly careful that these do not mar the outcome. By this gesture he was able to balance force projection with a degree of compromise in order to proceed towards establishing peaceful relationship between the two nations.

Seasoned men who lead business negotiation understands delay & drag, top-line & bottom-line and the balanced power play between force & compromise!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Russia pulls carpet out from under Lithuania

A motion submitted in the Russian Duma by a member of party aligned with Putin went almost unreported in the main stream media. This draft resolution requires the Duma to cancel the recognition of Lithuania as independent state and claim it as part of Russia, a Geotactics measure that can bring chaos in Baltics:

In an earlier occasion, Russia cautioned Finland regarding her neutrality as status of Alan under international treaty mandates it as neutral & demilitarized entity. Besides Saimaa Canal in Finland using land leased by Russia reinforces Finland remaining neutral. See my blog “Russia traps Finland over Alan Islands” (Here).

Lithuania did not follow the independence process in accordance with the provisions of Acts of the Russian Federation. For example under Article 67.1 of the constitution of Russian Federation is the legal successor of the USSR over its territory. Any country that wishes to go independent must firstly conduct under aegis of UN a referendum to secure more than 50% op votes in favour.

In the case of Lithuanian, nationalists there declared independence on March 11, 1990 without the consent of Russia and eleven months after that a sham referendum was held on 9 February 1991 without any international institution overseeing it. However, State Council of USSR decided to adopt a decree in according recognition.

This decree is now being challenged on three counts:

• The procedure adopted by Lithuania over independence  is null and void on legal grounds
• The recognition of Lithuanian Independence adopted by USSR State council was wrong in terms of the constitution of Russia
• No transitional period was established for consideration of all contentious issues, including Russian speaking people living in Lithuania and  Kaliningrad Oblast of Russia that borders Lithuania in the southwest 

This motion introduced by Yevgeny Fydorov, Member of Duma, from United Russia Party that is aligned with Vladimir Putin calls for the cancellation of recognition of Lithuanian independence as proper procedure was not followed.

A  great move of  Geotactics, that brings unimaginable effects: For Lithuania it is pulling the carpet from under her feet along with having Sword of Damocles hanged over her head;  For NATO being caught in a cul-de-sac re north European expansion; For China a sense of relief as she has troubled relationship with Lithuania over the latter’s mollycoddling with Taiwan. 

Putin is placed in a position where he has the magic wand of Geotactics that can finish off Lithuania!   

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

 

 

Blame game plays when risk game fails

It is an aphorism that if you don't play the risk game today, you are going to play the blame game tomorrow! In Ukraine parties other than Russia did not do the risk game correctly. As a result now each and every one is playing the blame game. Here is the synopsis:

America the lead party has the sole project of embroiling Russia in endless war in Ukr so that her geopolitical ambitions could be curtailed. In addition her performance in Syria was not to the liking of Washington who found itself playing a second fiddle. Having engineered the head of change, America later went pell-mell getting a comedian Zelensky appointed as President.

Constantly nibbling him America sought and won non-implementation of Minsk I and Minsk II protocols that proposed sell-government for Donbass. For almost 8 years Ukraine bombarded Donbass relentlessly at the behest of America. When the real action started in February, this year as Russians juggernaut rolled into Ukr, USA got into a proxy war using NATO partners in a coalition of willing but without putting her boots.

Military operation with a dose of Psy & info war, was wired from Pentagon into the battle field. Arms & ammunition flowed without interruption so did the mercenaries under the pay of the West. “Fight till the last Ukrainian” became the battle cry on one part and demonizing Russia in global forum on the other part the coalition was hell-bent to destroy Ukr as a unitary state.

Before entering into battle directly or indirectly a comprehensive risk & reward assessment must be undertaken to ascertain the likely scenario that could prevail say after this number of weeks & month into the battle. Intelligence failure must also be factored in such calculation. In other words understand Russian strategy.

Needless to say, from the start America & west got all the calculations wrong. Russia using less than ten percent of her military men with almost 1 to 3 ratio where the advantage lies with Ukr performed remarkably well with minimum loss in men & materials. At the time of writing she has captured almost quarter of Ukr territory. 

The blame game has now replaced the risk game. Biden blaming Zelensky; not to be outdone Zelkensky blaming Army, in turn Army blaming Zelensky and his cabal so goes the chain meandering endlessly towards the opposite side of Russia. For all these Russia is grinding down Ukraine to dust as part of her grand strategy!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajalu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist