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Thursday 28 March 2024

Israel as US geoeconomics tool is getting discredited

In the American repertoire of geoeconomics tools, Israel occupies a vital position and keeping her out of harm’s way is a bipartisan policy parameter.  To America’s surprise the sacrosanct policy of ‘safety and superiority of Israel’ is getting discredited because the Goliath is being battered by a group of non-state actors of the resistance. Read for more:

The date 7th October 2023 is marked in history as the beginning of the venture to remove Israel as Americas’ geoeconomics tool. When the HAMAS led resistance attacked inside Israel and took valuable hostages it acted as the Shofar trembling the Israelis by and large. Surprise on one side speed on the other the attack destroyed the myth of Invincibility of the country. It did not stop at that. Geoeconomics power play that kept Israel above her neighbours in terms of shock and awe started to dissipate. Here are few illustrations:

1. De-populating the northern sector that is vibrant with Silicon Valley and farming lands for fruits and vegetable was effected intentionally by the resistance. More than several hundred thousand settlers had to be evacuated to south.

2. Migration bites in the reverse order. Tel-Aviv and the environs that were high grounds of intellectual, professional and technology buffs migrating in saw many of these budding Israelis started to fly out to safe destinations till such time calm prevails once again.

3. Isolation of Israel in the global scene began to sting not only the PR guys but even the importers & exporters inside Israel. It happened in two ways: one is the transport by sea was predicated with constant rocket attacks by Hezbollah on the north and Houthis far away in the Red Sea. Two, the perception of Israel as genocidal apartheid regime began to crystallise in the minds of people in the global south who until that time was sympathetic towards the course of Israel as a vibrant democracy in the sea of Arab despots.

3. The name & fame Israel built up as reliable technology partner in terms of security, defence & surveillance software got severe beating. Besides its armament industry pouring out iron dome type defence, intelligence gathering and modern attack weapons was taken aback as the resistance was able to evade all these and successfully attacked sensitive areas throughout Israel.

4. Yet another geoeconomics failure lies in the umbilical code binding America and Israel which is being systematically severed. It is evident from most of the liberals in the Democratic Party voicing their opposition to sending money and arms to Israel. The growing chorus of objection towards Israel as part of national security of America is expected to have a big dent over the possibility of Biden’s chance for a second term.

5. More than anything else the fear factor for Israel has vanished. Israel can survive only when she can generate and sustain fear amongst her Arab Neighbours. Once the fear for Israel is gone, even the minions could easily take on the Goliath.

6. Can America invent a ‘Nova Israel’ to keep her geoeconomics noose over the bulls of Middle-East?

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

Wednesday 27 March 2024

Creative geoeconomics techniques, four examples

Anything you create on your own using your own imagination or innovating an existing one to be more modern and useful is referred to as creative matter. Geoeconomics is not an exception as the use of economic tools to advance objectives it requires lot of imagination and/or innovation. Here are few examples.

Let me start the first technique with Deng Xiaoping the paramount leader of the People's Republic of China (PRC) during December 1978 to November 1989 who understood how to be creative. The transformation of a planned economy to market based one started from a vantage point. First achieve self-sufficiency in basic needs then to upgrade to the luxury ones and thereafter look for new markets to avoid stagnancy on one hand and market saturation on the other. Yet this exercise must be done keeping the masses happy and contended so that rebellious tendency is suppressed and diverted to innovation resulting in more disruptive technology.

Second creative technique is ‘alternate market business model’ perfected by Vladimir Putin in the wake of economic sanctions imposed by the West after his Special Military Operations in Ukraine. It took up less than three months for Russia to corral in China, India, Turkey and South Africa to receive Russian products including energy, food and military items at competitive prices discount to the market.

Third one relates to dismantling entire factory brick by brick and transport lock and barrel to a faraway country to take advantage of selling price, wages & salaries and cost of production prevailing therein with twin geoeconomics purpose of having additional revenue and making the recipient country docile and beholden to the originator. Although this technique was ‘made in America’ in 1970s  China  followed suit in the last two decades via BRI and recently Russia facing wrath of the West transferred entire manufacturing set-up to Iran, North Korea and to the African continent. Rumours galore that China and Turkey are the newer recipients.

Fourth and fabulous one is the use of arms race as creative geoeconomics. Once again the credit goes to USA who pioneered this geoeconomics tool at the end of WWII where she fought Soviet Union tooth and nail and bankrupted the latter by developing cutting edge military hardware and munitions. Now it was bay back time for Putin’s Russia. After developing and show-casing hydronic missiles such as Zircon, Avangard and Kinzhal in the Ukraine theatre. Russia is forcing USA to respond in kind in terms of defence and counter attack. You know what? America has to cough up with multi-trillion dollars to reach parallel to the Russian position. Assuming it takes quite a number of years Russia, China and now Iran would have developed much more potent arsenals. To sum up creative geoeconomics originally invented by America is coming back home to roost!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

Friday 22 March 2024

Gulf countries playing safe

Business strategy amid geoeconomics mandates Gulf countries to play safe with both Houthis and American led West. Obviously they cannot take sides in public because of the sensitivity of the issue. More than that, they know where their bread is buttered.

Gaza genocide has impelled Houthis to go offensive. Their plan is to prevent Israel’s international trade that sustained her to finance this calamity. When several thousand Gazans died it became a political cum religious issue in the Arab and Islamic world. Gulf countries were placed on the horn of a dilemma. If they take the side of the West their population which is already restive would rise up in arms. At the same time they need to continue trading with the globe both west and east.

Protecting geoeconomics power play became an urgent issue for the countries in Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) namely Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia & United Arab Emirates because oil trade is a vital part of their revenue stream. So when “Operation Prosperity Guardian”  a US led task force to protect Red Sea Passage they quietly persuaded Bahrain which is home to the US Naval Forces Central Command and the US 5th fleet and which being not a significant player in the oil trade to join in.

Saudi Arabia thereafter started to divert oil exports from southern part of Red Sea ports to her northern part. More volume was pumped from the Muajjic terminal located close to the Yanbu Port into Sumed pipeline in the northern tip of Egyptian Sinai Peninsular to flow towards her Mediterranean Sea ports and thence to European market. In normal course less than 10 to 15% of the entire Saudi production is shipped through Red Sea ports both north and south of Saudi Arabia. At present, this volume has an uptick exclusively from northern ports.

As a part of the “Abram Accord 2020, “Dubai-Haifa Land Corridor" was established. Alternatively known as “Express Land Route" this corridor connects Jebel Ali Port in UAE to Haifa port in Israel traversing Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Earmarked especially to transport goods from India to Israel with an aim in reducing time and cost it is estimated that approximately 50 to 100 billion USD worth of goods are plying through. Today it comes handy because this route functions as an alternative to Red Sea transport.

But the crucial question remains. Both Saudis and Emiratis know for sure Houthis can bomb daylight out of this corridor. Hence they have to placate Houthis. More than that the Iranians. Well geoeconomics dictates that GCC has to fine tune business strategy in their relationship with both of them. Behind the back of America led West moves are afoot to bring them along into the financial gravy train. What is more, they are ostensibly persuading America to play tough with Israel.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist