Ukraine war, why Putin went in?

Special military operation  in Ukraine began in earnest on February 24 this year. Putin chose to go into mil operation as there was no other choice. Had he hesitated he would have been checkmated by US led NATO. More than that crowd in Kremlin Square would be calling for his head. Read more for my take on this explosive finding: 

NATO was totally in fault when it reneged its contract of “not an inch towards east”. In Roman law there is a maxim: “pacta sunt servanda” meaning “agreement must be kept”. This is the oldest principle of international relationship that was adhered to by every nation. NATO’s appetite for expansion has never been satisfied neither it is ready to honour any undertaking.

Russia for its horror saw the border is coming towards her in multiple direction. The colour revolution in Ukraine known as “Maidan revolution” of 2014 was a body blow to Russia. The existing status-quo was shattered like a thin glass. Even though Bucharest summit welcomed Ukraine and Georgia as members, America did not actively proceeded in this matter. This time around the writing on the wall is clear. Ukrainian neutrality melted away so did the status quo ante.

Consequent to Maidan revolution, leaders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts declared self-rule after obtaining support in the voting for that. The Crimean annexation by Russia and the desire for the people of the Eastern Ukraine especially in the Donetsk region for self-government led to internal warfare. For the last eight years the shimmering tension between Central government of Ukraine and the separatists in the East, who are mainly Russian speakers has blown into full scale conflict.

Waiting for the right time American led NATO pumped money, arms, military advice into the Ukr government. On the insistence of the West, Kiev agreed to absorb rightist warriors who are bent upon wiping out ethnic minorities, into the National Guard who were authorised to commit atrocities in Donetsk. Although Minsk Accords I & II were signed amongst the parties allowing self-rule for the east. This time it was Ukr prodded on by America that violated pacta sunt servnada.

In the meantime discontentment was growing inside Russia that Putin calling for peace whereas America led NATO instigating war. As a result it is the Russians in Ukr who are made to suffer. Putin has got to do something to save himself and the innocent Russians living in the rebel regions in the eastern part of Ukr. As a master in maskirovka strategy he was biding time for the right moment to execute his war strategy, which appeared when the two babies Donetsk and Lugansk declared independence that was recognised by Russia promptly. The stage was set for special operations which indeed followed suit.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

 

Moskva sinking, shrouded in mystery!

Any flagship of Russian Black Sea Fleet is symbolic for both Russia and her neighbours. It was just few days ago, Moskva spearheaded the attack on Mariupol. Unexpectedly there was an explosion on board causing serious damage afterwards, while being towed towards nearby port it sank. What caused the fire? Doubling down why Russia is salvaging wreckage?  Dip into this mystery: 

Moskva the 12,000 tonne missile cruiser was built in Kommunara shipbuilding plant in Mykolaiv, Ukraine successfully launched in 1979 and later commissioned by Soviet Navy in 1983. Used on several naval engagements by Russia the last one was of historic note: facilitating fall of Mariupol. Her next project was to soften any opposition in Odessa. 

Russian version 

An unexpected fire close to the ammunition storage ignited an explosion  causing irreparable damage to the ship. Subsequently being towed to nearby port it tipped on one side due to rough sea conditions and sank afterwards. The entire crew was evacuated.  

Ukraine version 

Moskva was targeted for as revenge attack over Mariupol two Neptune missiles that caused the blast resulting in explosion and the sinking.

Analysis

Neptune missile is land based anti-ship ordinance with a range of 280 km, carrying payload of explosives of 135 kilos. Combined together that is 270 kilos that is insufficient to cause the kind of explosion observed on board of Moskva. As regards to location of ship cruising just 90, Km away from the Ukrainian coast brings it within the range of Neptune missile, none the less.

There are two doubts cast on the Ukrainian version:

One, there is no satellite trace of  missiles fired from anywhere in Ukraine towards the southern coast of Black Sea parallel to Crimea. Neither there was any electronic signature traced for long-range missile fired from elsewhere in Ukraine or nearby NATO countries.

Two, Moskva is protected by a three-tiered defence system that is medium, short and nearby. The array of defence armoury consists of Vulcan anti-ship missiles and others that could target both submarines and torpedoes. The nearby defence is remarkable in that it creates hell-fire of bullets fired 5,000 a minute that could wipe-out any and every naval assets surrounding the ship in close range.

Strategy findings 

Russians are masters of maskirovka strategy. They let the narrative of Neptune missiles and Ukraine launching these that caused the fire. Once the narrative has finished its attention span they got into normal business. This time, they have started a salvage operation led by Kommuna the oldest operative salvager that is 110 years old to skim through to fish out and bring to surface hitherto unknown items.

It may be a doomsday weapon or may be some equipment that is too advanced in technology. One guess is the upgraded version of Poseidon missile which is described as an Intercontinental Nuclear-Powered Nuclear-Armed Autonomous Torpedo being in the weapons hold.

This giant torpedo can make short work of large coastal cities. Once fired it is unstoppable and move much faster than earlier models. Read in reference to the recent quip by Putin that Russia possesses technology that Americans are three decades behind, I surmise Moskva had unusual weapon system that was vital for Odessa Project. Either there was a hidden hand behind this gory affair or just a subterfuge by Kremlin. Whatever the mystery one thing is certain Odessa Attack is postponed but not wiped off the slate!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

Sarmat missile test sends forewarning signal

Putin was upbeat; after announcing the successful test launch of Sarmat missile he gave an ominous warning: “Those who in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric, try to threaten our country should pause to think about what consequences await for them”. Figurative speech true enough but this caused panic globally and theories are afoot why the missile test now?

Sarmat series of missiles is in the work in progress for quite some time, may be couple of decades. The central focus is to replace the ageing Soviet era Voyevoda ICBMs. Even in the conceptual drawing board and in assembling core parts and materials, Sarmat is a time consuming gargantuan work. At best the missile system was expected by western analysts to see the light in early 2030s under the normal circumstances.

But Putin made his classic Judo move this time with a tinge of maskirovka strategy. The specifications of the missile itself is daunting to western military experts. Called by Russia as SR 28 and christened by America as Satan 22 it is the world’s heaviest, powerful and speediest missile so far tested.

Blasted off on Wednesday April 20, from Plesetsk cosmodrome the test validated all the parameters. With a span of 5,500 km it has formidable warheads amounting to 10 to 15 depending on the weight packed in its store and once fired reach  targets anywhere flying over both North and South Pole and without being intercepted. The strike range of each warheads is about 18,000 km., cruising at the speed of 20.7 Mach and featuring multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV). Finally, SR 28 has gross weight around 208 MT. A colossus indeed.

Western analysts were quick to give their response for the Sarmat testing:

1. Putin is losing Ukraine war therefore he wants to change the focus of attention of Russian public

2. Putin is desperate to show a winning streak so he opts for the missile test

3. Psy Ops to make both his friends and foes to toe his line

4. Putin is tired of the Ukraine war & sanctions war and wants to move the West away from the UKR theatre

5. This is nuclear signalling where Putin is callous about using threat and actual launch of nuclear capable missile against presumed enemies

6. Russia wants USA to know that America is well behind missile technology, so to speak!

My take is, this is continuation of maskirovka strategy. Russians are very good at that and Putin is master proponent. The message that was not understood by the military and geopolitical analysts is that Putin is determined to finish off the task he began on February 24, that is liberating Donbass region and dismembering Ukraine and allow western part of present Ukraine as a land of waste to be grabbed by the western backers to be worn as brick around their neck!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist