Russia failing, Ukraine succeeding howzat?

Antony Blinken U S Secretary of State is grandstanding: “When it comes to Russia's war aims, Russia is failing, Ukraine is succeeding”. Let me use the exclamation “howzat”, often heard in the cricket ground when extra ordinary strokes are being played.  War is much more than game of cricket anyway as ground in Ukraine is shaking with Russian bombardment. Have a look!

Russians are in the long game not for short term profit or popularity. Putin understands the Sun Tzu theorem “Success in warfare is gained by carefully accommodating ourselves to the enemy's purpose”. He knows how to take into account the enemy concerns, utterings, actions and the gist of their thinking before making his strategy! 

USA, on the other hand understands only the periphery. It has expendable weapons and ammunitions that are yet to be sold to unwilling buyers. Dumping these munitions on Ukraine soil is one way of getting rid of obsolete stuff. But the overall picture of this largesse is mind boggling. For the last one year alone America dispensed a colossal 10 billion US$ as arms and assistance to Ukraine. Military supplies top the list at 3.5 billion US$. Deployment of military assets close to the war zone along with dedicated provision of intelligence sums up to 3 Billion US$  while foreign aid in the normal course of business  is estimated to be around 3 to 4 Billion US$.

The big question is what return America getting for her taxpayers money squandered this way. Those in the loop know that Ukraine is a losing project. Yet America wishes to prolong the war till the last Ukrainian alive. The good part, possibly is that most sophisticated weapons are falling on the hands of Russians through Ukrainian double crossing. True enough quite some supply reaches the Azov Battalion in Kharkov and other cities still under UKR flag. Most of these are getting knocked off just before being distributed.

Having completed partial paralyzing of the railway and roads network Russians were able to stop the follow of arms from the neighbouring countries into Ukraine. Whatever arms that slipped thorough are in transit via remaining railways and airports connecting western part of Ukraine to the eastern Donbass region. Hence the second phase of operation dictates that all remaining road & railway network be obliterated. Once these rail & road networks are rendered unusable the west has to resort to supply by airdrop something they did for West Germany during Cold War.

Russian juggernaut is moving regardless. Villages & cities are falling like cookies. Kherson to Odessa, a distance of 202 km is systematically being brought under control. Evidently, Kherson oblast with an area of 28,461 km is vital to conduct operations in the southern theatre. Doing so, Mykolaiv oblast with an area of 24,000 km is just a low hanging fruit.

 

Cheers! 

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

 

 

Cauldron concept, Russians use it effectively

Originally developed by Russian army and called Koten by them, cauldron is a military tactics that tie the enemy down in fairly large but strategic place without exit routes. The fate of the trapped soldiers depend on the moves the surrounding forces make.

The Russians are famously known for executing cauldron warfare in World War Two and in their recent expedition in Syria. Ukraine theatre has quite a number of cauldrons. In addition to military side cauldron concept can be effectively implemented in business strategy. Here are highlights of cauldron concept: 

1.  Surround your opponent but do not begin hostility immediately except as retaliatory attacks that too with limited scope.

2. Restrict the enemy movements by constant surveillance but incite him to use his fire power indiscriminately with the aim of running down their ammunitions.”

3. Selectively attack weaponry stores, ammunition dumps and command and control systems.  Mount cyber and system attacks in case opponent resorting to electronic communication and management

4. Go slow, terribly slow giving the impression that you are scared and follow the Chinese stratagem “lure the tiger out of its mountain lair” so that enemy shows up at a vulnerable position

5. Minimize civilian casualties but maximise collateral damage in the cauldron. By the same token, make a feast of getting enemy snipers killed at will.

6. Reduce mortality on your side but increase kill rate on the opposite side

7. “One donkey at a time” is the tested mantra in cauldron with a caveat: follow the Chinese stratagem “make sound in east but strike west”. Here the trapped soldiers move resources to repel an expected attack in the east while the west is laid bare or undefended in most places.

8. There are two aspects in warfighting: courage that is latent and morale that is hidden. You must go for demoralizing the opponent not to tease his courage

9. Move constantly in stealth, let enemy be stationary minding his rifles

10. Adopt terrain masking; Russians learned this from Vietcong guerrillas in Vietnam where hiding behind the terrain foot soldiers spring at unexpected place and at unexpected time. If air cover is needed low-flying planes or helis are used

11. Last, but not least, cut off the supply of food & water to the enemy quarters. Curtail replenishments arriving from elsewhere. In sum isolate opponent and let the feelings of helplessness pervade. In other words “wear them down”. This would enervate even the mightiest army.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

NATO expansion, a timeline

Originally formed in April 1949, NATO had only 12 members. Four countries joined in due course totalling 16. Rome summit of 1991 was the bombshell when NATO welcomed more members. The floodgate opened; Russia was cornered; Putin was alarmed. The rest is history and now a bloody war in Ukraine. Here is the timeline:

Out of the founding members of NATO, only Canada and USA are from across Atlantic Ocean. Other ten members are European states namely Belgium, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway and Portugal. Accretion thereafter was slow, Turkey & Greece were admitted in 1952, West Germany in 1955 and Spain in 1982. Soviet Union was not happy at all, nevertheless it did not protest either. With the collapse of Soviet Union it was agreed to let East Germany join with her western part and the United Germany could be a member of NATO under the proviso that no missiles would be located in the eastern part previously held by the Russians.

Rome summit changed the status quo ante to the chagrin of Russian Federation. Neither Michael Gorbachev nor Boris Yeltsin would condescend   to the declaration made during the summit that welcome erstwhile members of the Warsaw Pact. The first round saw Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland inside the net of NATO by 1999. Of course, there was a groundswell of opinion in these countries for American type of democracy. Added to that is America’s declared bait of Article 5 protection enshrined in NATO charter. Amidst strong Russian objection admission of these countries went through without any incident. However the Russian public was dismayed and dissatisfied as America’s James Baker has given categorical assurance that not an inch NATO expands eastward!

Second round of expansion was completed in 2004 when seven countries namely Bulgaria Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia were netted in. The fury of Russians was unbound. Putin said that the latest round of expansion does not mitigate threats from international terrorists. He also expressed concerns especially regarding the three Baltic countries where stationing of long range missiles would pose security issues for Russia. Apart from stating the misgivings Putin stopped short of condemning the NATO action.

Bucharest Summit by NATO and the conclusory declaration that welcomed the aspiration of both Georgia and Ukraine for full membership brought strong headwinds from Russia towards NATO and its chief architect USA. That was the last straw on the camel. Russia saw two of her immediate neighbours are manoeuvred by America to apply for membership and be accorded so in due course with a sole purpose of building an arch of encirclement. 

A counter strategy was in the works and on August 2008, Russian forces entered Georgia and after a brief war Abkhazia and South Ossetia were liberated. The latter is in strategically important in South Caucasus region. Grabbing Abkhazia with an estimated 160 km sea-front plus four seaports in good working order: Gogra, Sokhumi, Gudauta and Ochamchire was a boon indeed! 

February 24, 2022 recorded Russia crossing Ukrainian borders with a stated purpose of liberating Luhansk and Donetsk regions in the Eastern Ukraine that have declared independence in 2014 after the Maidan revolution. The Special Military Operation is going according to plan and NATO is reduced to fight a proxy war in Ukraine without air support.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Sarmat missile test sends forewarning signal

Putin was upbeat; after announcing the successful test launch of Sarmat missile he gave an ominous warning: “Those who in the heat of frenzied aggressive rhetoric, try to threaten our country should pause to think about what consequences await for them”. Figurative speech true enough but this caused panic globally and theories are afoot why the missile test now?

Sarmat series of missiles is in the work in progress for quite some time, may be couple of decades. The central focus is to replace the ageing Soviet era Voyevoda ICBMs. Even in the conceptual drawing board and in assembling core parts and materials, Sarmat is a time consuming gargantuan work. At best the missile system was expected by western analysts to see the light in early 2030s under the normal circumstances.

But Putin made his classic Judo move this time with a tinge of maskirovka strategy. The specifications of the missile itself is daunting to western military experts. Called by Russia as SR 28 and christened by America as Satan 22 it is the world’s heaviest, powerful and speediest missile so far tested.

Blasted off on Wednesday April 20, from Plesetsk cosmodrome the test validated all the parameters. With a span of 5,500 km it has formidable warheads amounting to 10 to 15 depending on the weight packed in its store and once fired reach  targets anywhere flying over both North and South Pole and without being intercepted. The strike range of each warheads is about 18,000 km., cruising at the speed of 20.7 Mach and featuring multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV). Finally, SR 28 has gross weight around 208 MT. A colossus indeed.

Western analysts were quick to give their response for the Sarmat testing:

1. Putin is losing Ukraine war therefore he wants to change the focus of attention of Russian public

2. Putin is desperate to show a winning streak so he opts for the missile test

3. Psy Ops to make both his friends and foes to toe his line

4. Putin is tired of the Ukraine war & sanctions war and wants to move the West away from the UKR theatre

5. This is nuclear signalling where Putin is callous about using threat and actual launch of nuclear capable missile against presumed enemies

6. Russia wants USA to know that America is well behind missile technology, so to speak!

My take is, this is continuation of maskirovka strategy. Russians are very good at that and Putin is master proponent. The message that was not understood by the military and geopolitical analysts is that Putin is determined to finish off the task he began on February 24, that is liberating Donbass region and dismembering Ukraine and allow western part of present Ukraine as a land of waste to be grabbed by the western backers to be worn as brick around their neck!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

 

Putin counters financial Armageddon

The west launched a financial Armageddon on Russia in the wake of Ukraine special ops, with a stated purpose of making Russia pay for the sin. A plethora of sanctions, prohibitions and restrictions were imposed so that Putin and Russia are suffocated to death.  At the periphery it appeared a reality. But…. 

Putin pressed the calm button and contemplated over a bouquet of counter measures, some of whom he borrowed from the playbook of the west amended suitably, that have the potential to make all adversarial acts to backfire on the initiators themselves. Understanding business strategy at the back of his hand, he sprung out a clear pathway where strategic and tactical moves that fit well into a unique architecture with spontaneous momentum were quickly announced and adopted. 

Expectedly, these reactions, which I list below, brought forward two results: one Putin survived grabbing success from the jaws of defeat in the financial war. Secondly the western hegemon ended up scoring its own goal as food and energy security were blown into smithereens.

1.  Gold convertibility of rouble was announced and implemented so that Ruble is backed by gold rather than influenced by sentiments prevailing in financial markets. Pegging of gold to Ruble is fixed at one gram of gold at 5,000 Rubles and an ounce of gold at 160,000 Rubles. Central Bank of Russia is authorised to sell Ruble only on the disposition of gold by the buyers. The market based valuation of Ruble was jettisoned and in its place centrally fixed value was promulgated, eliminating demand–supply mechanism that impacts re-valuation or de-valuation at the pegged price. Anyone can hold Rubles but nobody can sell these as the sole buyer is Russia’s Central Bank. 

2. As an interim measure, exporters were goaded to lodge proceeds from exports after converting into Rubles to their bank accounts. This was initially placed at 80% of the incoming remittance and was progressively reduced as position stabilizes. A number of channels were announced where routing take place, mainly selected from banks and financial intermediaries that are not subjected to sanctions imposed by the west. Exports of wheat, gas, petroleum products were priced in Ruble even though the contract specified currencies other than Rubles. 

3. Yet another interim measure was raising interest rate to 20% promptly to smoothen out-flow of Rubles to the west but being retained in the vaults of domestic commercial banks. Later this rate was reduced to 17% but still much attractive for domestic investors and any willing investors from foreign sources. 

4. No exports of sensitive material or dual-purpose items were allowed. Russia possesses one of the largest reserves of minerals including but not limited to iron-ore, coal, gold, diamond, nickel, uranium, platinum, and palladium. The latter along with neon are vital for chip manufacturing. The fact of the matter is west cannot do without Russian raw materials. 

5. Cumulatively, these measures built up a solid bulwark of defence as Putin rightly pointed out in his latest statement: “I am referring to the growth of inflation and unemployment in the United States and European countries, the decline in the standard of living of Europeans, the devaluation of their savings. Whereas Russia has withstood this unprecedented pressure. The situation is stabilizing.”

 

Cheers! 

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

 

Marine Le Pen, what is her election strategy?

The run-off for the French presidential election is fixed for April 24, 2022 as no candidate achieved outright majority in the first round held on April 10. Marine le Pen was placed second after the incumbent Macron, with almost a deficit of 1.65 million votes. Can she turn the tide? And what is her Election Strategy? 

Based on the first round election result, Le Pen is charting a strategy known as two-pronged attack where she wants to get the support of voters who cast their votes to third placed Melanchon who represents socialist democratic program as well as fourth placed candidate Zemmour who is a fire brand rightist. Incidentally, these two candidates polled 7.71 million and 2.48 million votes respectively. In terms percentage the first round polled as follows:

Macron 27.8

Le Pen   23.1

Melanchon 22.0

Zemmour 7.1

Smoothing the edges, Le Pen tries to gain at-least 70 to 80% of voters who have supported the last two candidates. Besides, there are fringe candidates reflecting varied policy and philosophy in the French electoral system. Most of them exhibit anti-incumbency feelings any way!

French are not much concerned about global affairs. None the less, they are pretty much concerned with Europe as a centre and French ethos “Liberty, equality and Fraternity” as guiding policy of the Republic. This was put asunder by Macron whose high handed treatment of the Yellow Vests protestors in December 2018 is still fresh in their memory. Predictably so, Melanchon who stood for these values cannot support Macron under any circumstances.

Second limb of electoral strategy Le Pen unveiled is the empowerment of people. On the face of Macron’s refusal to use allotted TV hours for campaigning and the fact that candidates in the run-off are only permitted equal hours of TV visibility, Le Pen is constrained to discuss and explain all her policies and programmes to the public via media platform. She therefore opted for empowering the people as a major chunk of her strategy.

She declared that once elected she would leave the NATO integrated defence architecture touching the raw nerve of the French pride that does not want the French army under any command be it American or European. As regards to leaving the NATO altogether she pronounced, it is the People who decides major policy issues such as NATO and Ukraine by way of a referendum. 

In sum the electoral strategy of Le Pen is based on one part soliciting the support of the anti-macron anti-incumbency factor that is widely felt across France and on the other part crowning the public as masters in deciding vital issues in global relationship.

Shall await the results of the run-off election with bated breath!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist