Demilitarization: Russian version in Ukraine

In military parlance, demilitarization is the activity or group of activities in destroying the ability of an entity or a country to wage war or pursue hostilities. A laundry list including men, materials, equipment, infra-structure, hardware & software are legitimate targets for this purpose. But Russian version extend this far& wide:

Before formulating strategy for Special Military Operation (SMO) Russian high command dwelt with identifying targets, methods of offensive, reducing civilian casualties & collateral damages to civic society. Having done that the following critical aspects related to military capability were bullet-marked as operational goals: 

1. Initial attack is to puncture the known capability of Ukr forces and do away with the hitherto un-published capacity, yet known to the Russian intelligence in a blitzkrieg  

2. Destroying command & control centres that are spread across Ukr theatre with special attention paid to Kiev and other cities that have vital mil centres located both over & under ground

3. Rendering useless any technology with associated hard & software items that are used to pursue warfare including the dual use ones

4. Ensuring that Ukr does not resort to nuclear technology by quickly seizing up nuke power centres in north, central & south Ukraine

5. Eliminating the chance of weapons finding its way to unsavoury characters such as terrorists who can wreak havoc on the civilian population

6. Dissolving major part of the fighting units that are employed by both army and interior ministry

7. Continuing barrage of missile and artillery attacks against factories that manufacture domestic weapons and parts that are to be replenished for soviet era heavy armaments currently in use in Ukraine. In technical parlance this is known as “Industrial Demilitarization”

8. Nipping in the bud, armaments flow from NATO & allied countries that arrive on the border of Ukr. In case of air-freighting these arms are to be destroyed when subsequently stored within airports or while on their way to distribution centres outside airports. Most damages were inflicted as these weapons were being transported via roads & railway

9. Conveying to the operational command of Ukr army that there should not be any training camps where foreign military personnel are operating as well as tabooing the deployment of any forces that are inimical to Russian interest

10. Moreover military exercises with forces arraigned against Russia were banned altogether along with a cautionary note that future orders for acquiring and/or using modern mil armaments must cease lest these be destroyed the moment of their arrival on Ukrainian soil.

This ten-point formula not only takes demilitarization of Ukraine to the scale hitherto un-known in military history but reinforces Russia as geoeconomics power with cutting edge armament industry!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Putin implements what Stalin said

Vladimir Putin admired Joseph Stalin on two counts: Stalin won WWII and Stalin made Russia an industrialized state. Even though Putin despises Marxism and Joseph Stalin being the promoter of Marxism-Stalinism he was keenly following Stalinist philosophy.

For illustrative purposes, let me pick for you five quotes from Joseph Stalin which, Putin applied with great aplomb adopting brilliant business strategy that altered present paradigms of geoeconomics:

First one, Joseph Stalin said: “Artillery is the god of war”.  Reading the Heartland Theory by Halford Mackinder, Putin understood that being, on the great part a land power Russia must develop artillery, rocket and missile. Amongst the three artillery functions as front-line as well as support line from the sides and behind. Ukraine ops displayed the effective use of all three types of artillery, namely guns, howitzers and mortars in close-up battle and in long range attack.

Second one, Stalin said: “In war I would deal with the Devil and his grandmother”. Putin demoed it while ordering special ops in Ukraine. He is not only dealing with fellow-Slavic Ukraine but also NATO who is mothering Ukr and all those European satraps. This is full-spectrum war with military, political, economic and technology inputs that proves the edge Russia possesses now.

Third one, Stalin said: “History shows that there are no invincible armies”. Once again the all-out war the west is engaging in supported by almost 70 countries proves this point. The combined resources both military and non-military of these countries at war with Russia often gloating that they are of invincible nature are proven worthless; Russia is smoothly decapitating them one by one

Fourth one, Stalin said: “If the opposition disarms, well and good. If it refuses to disarm we shall disarm it ourselves”.  Putin warned Ukraine to take action to de-Militarize, de-Nazify and remain peaceful & neutral. Sadly, Ukr dismissed it as “brutum fulmen”. Well by end-February Russia moved forward in her mission of disarming Ukraine by herself. Right now almost 30% of Ukr real estate is in the hands of Russia and de-Militarization and de-Nazification continues apace. 

Fifth & final one, Stalin said: “Everyone imposes his own system as far as his army can reach”. Well Russia under Putin has got the entire Donbass region in her pocket. Progressively, both sides of Dnieper River could easily be acquired. That is in east, central and north as far the Russian tanks roll in. In the south the entire sea coastline would be plucked from Ukr and Transnistria along with Moldova be freed. All these liberated areas would be “Russified” while the Ukr Slavs have two options left. Either surrender & assimilate with Russian or like the western Slavs remain in the rump state of Ukraine sans Black Sea, sans fertile & industrialized eastern part of Dnieper River!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Russia Snake Island withdrawal, strategic or tactical

Russia announced on June 30 that her forces had been withdrawn from the Snake Island as a goodwill measure. Earlier the capture was touted as key salience of Russian military operations. Is this move amounts to strategic or tactical withdrawal?

Snake Island also known as “Zmiinyi” is a small rocky outcrop of less than 97 acre located roughly 24 and 28 miles off from the coastline of Ukraine & Rumania. Its strategic significance is well appreciated. (Read). There had been several attempts by Ukraine to re-capture this rock ending in massive failure and loss of men & materials.

My analysis on the basis of business strategy at the backdrop of geoeconomics reveals that it is tactical in operation but strategic in intention. My position is supported by the following facts:

 

• The cost of holding this remote and inhospitable outpost is a drain of resources on the part of Russia. Mainly because she can do the surveying, monitoring and controlling the entire stretch of Black Sea from Sevastopol in Crimea.
• Allowing Ukraine to claim victory and boast that this was due to use of US/NATO weapons that would certainly appease to their ego.
• Put Ukraine in perspective as regards to her floating WWII mines in and around the port of Odessa, to clear these in order to facilitate grain exports.  Since these mines cannot be traced easily Ukr has to spend whale of a lot money and labour to clear them and give “all safe sign”.
• The other ports of significance in Ukr grain export being Melitopol, Mariupol and Berdyansk are now in the Russian hands and are completely demined.
• Forcing the America led west to come into terms with three conditions imposed by Russia that are fair and in the interest of for both Russia & Ukraine.

1. Secure safety of grain export from port of Odessa under international law that includes Russian approval, because the entire north, west and eastern parts of black Sea is under the control of Russia
2. No external navy other than Russian would be allowed to provide safe passage in Black Sea until the beginning point of Turkish Straits.
3. No military assets are to be transported in naval vessels under the guise of grain export. Russian Navy has the right to stop every vessel sailing to and fro Ukrainian ports and examine the freight within.

 

Cheers! 

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

Strategic petroleum reserve, why needed?

Recently Joe Biden POTUS, ordered release of part of strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) due to the prevailing high demand for gasoline throughout America. As an emergency measure, he did the right thing. What is SPR and why we need it?

World War II taught a lesson or two about saving for the rainy day. One lesson is to build-up reserves of petroleum in tanks mostly underground. The British had one of the extensive tanks farm in Trincomalee a port city located in North-East of Ceylon where Royal Navy held sway over the entire Indian Ocean.

America has the world’s largest such strategic petroleum reserve stored in salt caverns at four storage facilities in Texas and Louisiana. Generally these underground stores have crude oil and are located close to coastline. Salt caverns are cost effective compared to steel tanks or concretised rock tanks. 

The overall capacity is said to be 714 Million Barrels (MB).  Five times of annual consumption is the formula under which the storage quantum is specified. Safety margin is between 600 to 700 MB. However the threshold level is fixed at 500 MB when it dips below that point, emergency measures are called for to replenishing. Right now that is the case in USA due to heavy draw down.

American predicament is not shared by countries such as Russia, China or even India. As Russia sits on humongous fossil fuel resources, her SPR is the lowest among the three countries at 15 MB. India has 38 MB, though not adequate in relation to her size of population, she  enjoys seamless procurement procedure earlier with Iran which predicated after US sanctions, and now with Russia that too at discounted price. China is next to USA with the second largest SPR at 500 MB and enjoys assured resupply overland from Russia during any emergency.

Unlike America, both China & India implement business strategy of not depending on single source for re-supply. By diversifying fossil fuel suppliers their business strategy is to source from varied suppliers and in multiple ways in order to ensure uninterrupted supply at any given time.

Strategic petroleum reserve is effective only if you have corralled ready suppliers. In the case of America it has burned bridges with Venezuela which is close by and has soured relationship with Saudi Arabia. Due to prevailing sanctions she cannot turn to Russia for help. Therefore the only solution is to accelerate domestic oil production. Shale oil appears to be workable one provided that environmental caution is thrown out of window!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist