Nasrallah reads the tea leaves

Hassan Nasrallah Secretary General of Hezbollah which is a political party and at the same time a militant organization committed to liberate Lebanese territory captured by Israel and also to free Palestinian homeland in the Levant. He is good at reading the tea leaves:

Nasrallah is known for his strategic mind in understanding what Sun Tzu says as ‘know your enemy’. I feel that mentioning the full quote by the grand statretegist is not out of place. Here it is:

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

It is crystal clear that Nasrallah observes the enemy intent, behaviour and the delivery of the offensive and defensive Operations by Israeli forces. In addition to military affairs Nasrallah also understands that Israel drives its power from two areas: American support and Israeli geoeconomics clout. The former is not within his means to counter but as regards to geoeconomics he has shown his dexterity. Here is the SWOT analysis of what he has done so far:

Strength: Continue the hit and run operations in Northern Israel so that the major geoeconomics centres that produce high tech products in Israel are placed under constant threat of attacks from outside.

Weakness: An all-out war with Israel is not feasible from the military point of view as Hezbollah is no match to the quantitative & qualitative armoury of Israel. At any time ground invasion takes place, Lebanon would suffer most. Hence negating a full & comprehensive war must be done using escalatory management system of offence & defence and climbing up & down.

Opportunity: Nasrallah believes that America would be exasperated before long, with domestic issues such as illegal immigrants, crime, corruption, denial of freedom for her citizens along with vocal opposition to Charles Schwab and his World Economic Forum (WEF) prescriptions that would undo all what United States stood for since 20^th Century. In fact it is that geoeconomics power US wielded so far would boomerang at her.

Threat: Emerging scenario in the post BRICS era would make USA a weak economy resulting in constant fighting with Latin American countries in the South. As Monroe doctrine forbade outside powers to intervene in American affairs both North & South America fight it out and USA would not have the time to concentrate in outside affairs including Mid-East.

The end result is America cannot protect her vassals in Europe and elsewhere. As headless chickens the erstwhile vassals including Israel had to either fold out or be destroyed in the upcoming geoeconomics milieu.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

Partial blocking of Hormuz is on the cards

Ominous announcements by IRGC apart, there is serious discussion of emerging scenario of Iran blocking Strait of Hormuz partially, is taking place amongst geoeconomics analysts. Of course there cannot be smoke without any fire. Let us delve deep:

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) a multi service arm of the Iranian Armed forces has earned a reputation similar to that of US Marines in frontal warfare as well as grey zone operations. On April 9, 2024 its commander Alireza Tangsiri made a startling announcement. He is reportedly have said that ‘a review of policy regarding Strait of Hormuz is underway as Iran views Israeli presence in UAE is deemed as existential threat’.

The crux of the matter is Israeli presence in the form of military and civil representation in UAE has been there for some time. Why all of a sudden Iran viewing it as a threat has not been explained. The bottom line is clear: Iran is getting ready to spring a surprise.

Under the aegis of Abram Accord 2020, “Dubai-Haifa Land Corridor" was established in order to connect Jebel Ali Port in UAE to Haifa port in Israel traversing Saudi Arabian and Jordanian territory. Once fully operational the transport volume is expected to be in the tune of US$ 50 to 100 Billion. Put it in another way offering a boon in geoeconomics for Israel as it enhances normalization of Arab-Jewish Entente at the expense of Palestinian liberation.

An isolated incident that occurred on April 9, 2024 as regards to the commandeering of Israeli container ship MSC Aries, in the Persian Gulf shed some light. Portuguese flagged, MSC Aries is owned & operated by Zodiac Maritime Company based in London whose major stake is held by Eyal Ofer a Jewish magnate.

More alarming news is on the way. Iranian Naval Forces are keeping their powder ready to partially block Israeli shipping thru Strait of Hormuz initially and extend it to other commercial ships plying to and fro any ports in UAE that transports goods related to Israel.

Now it is no longer a matter of conjecture that the policy regarding closure of Strait of Hormuz has been already reviewed. It is not the question of ‘if’ but ‘when’ partial blocking is to commence!

The Global North has to accept the unescapable fact that ‘Iran has arrived as a great force in geoeconomics’ not to mention her military prowess & preparedness to take on the West in her own backyard.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

If Iran closes Strait of Hormuz….

Strait of Hormuz is a narrow semi-circular bend way in the Persian Gulf. The naval topography favours Iran to close this artery at any time she wants. Now that Houthis have effectively closed Bab-al Mandeb, Iran may be tempted to do so. Here are the nuts & bolts:

More than 25% of the global oil traffic traverse thru Persian Gulf something about 21 million barrels per day of crude. KSA, UAE, Kuwait and Iraq depends on this waterway to export their oil. Besides about one third of the sea born LPG, mainly from Qatar is carried through this artery.

The Hormuz Strait is 90 nautical miles in length curving out of the sea way in a bottle neck located between Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Whereas at the narrowest point the artery is of 33 KM of breath throughout it hovers around in a fairly narrow band between 35 km to 96 km., unescapably, the narrowest point is under the Iranian control. That alone gives Iran geoeconomics clout unheard so far in the navigation annals.

There have been precedents of its closure. In 1972 both Iran & Oman closed it jointly after their dispute of the extent of ownership of the Hormuz gateway. Later the matter was settled to the advantage of Iran due mainly to the influence Persian Shah wielded.

On 18, April 1988, US Navy began a day’s hostilities to re-open Iran’s closure of the Strait. Since then the US Fifth Fleet located at Bahrain is tasked to protect commercial shipping throughout the Persian Gulf.

But Houthi’s success in interdicting naval operations in the Bab-al Mandeb along with Red Sea extended to Oman Sea as well has changed the table and heralds fairly strong position on the part of Iran.  

Ground situation has changed now so is the naval power dynamics. America and/or the Global North cannot rule the waves as it was used to be in the halcyon days. Iran has already demonstrated what she can do when she launched quantum salvo of drones, and missiles on pre-announced date of 13 April 2024 and pre-targeted locations deep inside Israel dubbed as “Operation True Promise”.  The cost benefit alone favoured Iran. For a meagre US$ 30 million outlay by Iran, Israel and her partners had to run through more than US$ 1.35 Billion in deterrence activities.

Could this be replicated in the closure of Strait of Hormuz? Only time and geoeconomics would tell.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist