Nasrallah reads the tea leaves

Hassan Nasrallah Secretary General of Hezbollah which is a political party and at the same time a militant organization committed to liberate Lebanese territory captured by Israel and also to free Palestinian homeland in the Levant. He is good at reading the tea leaves:

Nasrallah is known for his strategic mind in understanding what Sun Tzu says as ‘know your enemy’. I feel that mentioning the full quote by the grand statretegist is not out of place. Here it is:

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

It is crystal clear that Nasrallah observes the enemy intent, behaviour and the delivery of the offensive and defensive Operations by Israeli forces. In addition to military affairs Nasrallah also understands that Israel drives its power from two areas: American support and Israeli geoeconomics clout. The former is not within his means to counter but as regards to geoeconomics he has shown his dexterity. Here is the SWOT analysis of what he has done so far:

Strength: Continue the hit and run operations in Northern Israel so that the major geoeconomics centres that produce high tech products in Israel are placed under constant threat of attacks from outside.

Weakness: An all-out war with Israel is not feasible from the military point of view as Hezbollah is no match to the quantitative & qualitative armoury of Israel. At any time ground invasion takes place, Lebanon would suffer most. Hence negating a full & comprehensive war must be done using escalatory management system of offence & defence and climbing up & down.

Opportunity: Nasrallah believes that America would be exasperated before long, with domestic issues such as illegal immigrants, crime, corruption, denial of freedom for her citizens along with vocal opposition to Charles Schwab and his World Economic Forum (WEF) prescriptions that would undo all what United States stood for since 20^th Century. In fact it is that geoeconomics power US wielded so far would boomerang at her.

Threat: Emerging scenario in the post BRICS era would make USA a weak economy resulting in constant fighting with Latin American countries in the South. As Monroe doctrine forbade outside powers to intervene in American affairs both North & South America fight it out and USA would not have the time to concentrate in outside affairs including Mid-East.

The end result is America cannot protect her vassals in Europe and elsewhere. As headless chickens the erstwhile vassals including Israel had to either fold out or be destroyed in the upcoming geoeconomics milieu.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist