Afghan warlords are no more

One positive thing Taliban takeover has done is to cause the disappearance of once ubiquitous warlords who are either banished or rendered useless. The speed in which they were vanquished speaks volume of Taliban way of conducting business. What is surprising most, is the genuflection of erstwhile warlords as peace loving doves. 

Is this end of the road to warlordism? Let me trace two of the well-known warlords and their business strategy.

Marshal Abdul Rashid Dostum

This battle hardened Marshal is of Uzbek descent and a darling of National Intelligence Organization of Turkey known by its Turkish initials MİT who has been in the scene from the time when Afghan King Mohammed Shah, was deposed in July 1973. His fiefdom was Jowzjan province. After Soviet invasion in 1979, Dostum became a key figure and partner in the Northern Alliance which fought Russians till their withdrawal in 1989 and the Taliban afterwards till 2001. He was the key ally for Americans who invaded Afghan in 2001.

His business strategy was based on divide and rule and using brutal power one against the other. He always got the lion share and gave out only a minor part to even his trusted allies. Employing skilled administrators he collected tributes from subjects under his watch. As a person charged with war crimes which he committed in such largesse, he was the first to get out, or perhaps MIT moved him out to Ankara. Where he failed was not sharing the loot in fair proportion and his wont of shifting alliance that finally put paid to him politically.

Atta Mohammed Nur

Considered the foremost richest warlord in the history of Afghan, Nur an ethnic Tajik often worked shoulder to shoulder with Marshal Dostum. However, he was careful enough not to get all bad publicity the latter had received from people and press. As a weather cock his business strategy is to get the spoils before others come and leave the spot before it becomes noted.  Whichever the government in Kabul he played safe and remained above censure. He never left evidence to indict him for his wrongdoings, which are too numerous anyway.

His bright side is well known. As Governor of Balkh province during 2004 – 2018 one of the longest running officialdom held by any Afghan in the last few decades until Ashraf Ghani sacked him, he made his mark as an able administrator in the war-torn Afghanistan. His nickname “Teacher” was inscribed upon him due to his ability of coaching Mujahedeen to be excellent fighters during the war with Soviets.

When Talban was winning in August 2021, he briefly bolted out to Uzbekistan with Marshal Dostum. Later he returned to Mazar e- Sharif and has renounced all violence and warlordism. He is priming once gain for a political office under incoming Taliban administration. The immense dirty lucre that he has amassed so far has become his Achilles Heel today. Hence safeguarding his wealth was then and now remains prime focus of his business strategy.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Royal Flush with China in Afghan poker

China is damned lucky to get the strongest and best possible hand in the Afghan poker game. Called, Royal Flush, this is when a player gets cards in a standard five card game namely, ace, king, queen, jack and 10 all from the same suit. Taliban led Afghan is giving this royal flush to China. Here are the details:

Ace: China is ready to give a blank cheque where details could be filled in by Taliban. Whereas with Iran China negotiated 25 years US$ 400 billion deal, Afghan  is going to get the largesse may be the double the amount but for a  lesser duration. Not to forget the Afghan sits over approximately US$ 3 to 4 Trillion worth mineral and other resources. Mes Aynak Mine alone has the largest virgin copper deposit in the globe. China has already won the bid. Details to be worked out with Taliban to take it to logical conclusion.

King: Providing the sought after but alluding legitimacy that Taliban desperately wants but has become a bargain issue with the America led West. China accelerates the process of granting legitimacy, initially recognising Afghan sovereignty and giving assurance regarding non-interference in internal affairs of the country. Functioning as a bulwark for Afghan peace & development China has the wherewithal to stand with Afghan in the international forum and afford her diplomatic cover in case other countries try to impose sanctions via UNSC and other global institutions such as WTO. 

Queen: China gives access to Taliban on global setting where trade, finance and investment in geoeconomics are facilitated. Doha apart, China can arrange for seamless trade taking place to and fro Afghan via conduits like Pakistan & Iran, not to mention China itself and the adjoining Central Asian Countries. People’s Bank of China could also function as clearing & reserve bank in case Afghan institutions are firewalled by any sanctions. China led Asian Infrastructure Investment bank could also provide safety margin if finance from the West dries up.

Jack:  Peace & prosperity is the jack of everything in Geoeconomics power structure. Clear pathway to peace is the Afghan led & Afghan participated programme that has the potential to reconcile conflicting ideas and ethnic diversity towards national awakening. The good part in doing this can be played by an honest broker. In the Afghan horizon there is no country other than China who could fill this challenging slot. When peace breaks out in every nook and cranny of Afghan it is the prosperity which follows in earnest. A good handshake is to extend the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghan as well. In principle, both Pakistan & China had agreed to do this. Now it is a matter of details for connecting the wires.

10:  Security vacuum is unsurmountable threat facing war torn Afghan in the post withdrawal phase. Already the alliance partners who invaded Afghan are talking about “over the horizon military manoeuvres” to push back any semblance of law & order taking root in Afghan. China is well-positioned to turn the table on these enemies in the shadow by offering membership in Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). That is one thing.

The other is for China to canvas for full membership for Afghan in Russia led Collective Treaty Security Organization (CSTO. Incidentally at present Afghan is an observer state and elevating her as full member is a matter of course. Tajikistan is a participating member in CSTO and Tajiks form an important ethnic community in Afghan fibre and are fairly restless too. Tajiks are itching to play the role of spoiler; CSTO would put paid to this.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Fixing supply chain issues

Any unstable condition could impact business progress. Degree of such impact depends on how business strategy attempts to manage geoeconomics imperative. Recently due to Covid 19 entire globe got entangled in the longest and largest geoeconomics crisis: supply chain issues and how it can be managed.  Here are few hot takeaways:

To begin with, information management went awry at the outset of the pandemic. Already there had been no proper planning as regards to collecting and collating data regarding demand & supply movements. The lesson learned in the latest pandemonium was the urgent need to establish centres for doing this job on country wise and global basis. Unless demand is accurately forecast no business can venture into producing items that would later remain unsold. Equally important is the ability of taking into count changes taking place in terms customer tastes and buying patterns. Business must calibrate the production line so as to match with both demand and customer predilection.

The latest setback of chips manufacturing has resulted in several businesses going into red because they were unable to get products passing the finish line. Colossal shortage of required chips pushed motor companies to bring down their shutters. This is one thing. But the other most consternating one is the price of motor vehicles already in the hands of users shot up to unimaginable heights. When used items go up in price two things could happen. One, new cars rolling out would be priced more than what the market can bear. Two, this would have spin off effects over the supply of materials other than chips such as steel, aluminium, glass, plastic, rubber, fibre and electrical.

Freighting is another major variant that affects smooth processing of supply chain. There are several sub-plots here. Price of freighting overall has gone up due to non-availability of containers on one hand and lack of space in freight vessels on the other. Suez Canal debacle where a container ship got stuck over a muddy trench for more than six days, threw up worldwide shipping into the throes of chaos and resulted in heavy damages to the canal directly and froze global trade of several billion dollars indirectly. 

Freight Transport services have dual functions: facilitating the carriage of goods and networking with both buyers and suppliers in a co-ordinated manner. Eliminating delay is the cornerstone of any such transport entity worthy of its salt.   What is more such companies have to work with ports in case of sea freight and hubs in case of air-freight. To add to this there is another dimension: the railway network. For example, Yiwu – London Railway Line collects freight at Yiwu in, China for transportation to London UK covering a distance of about 7,500 miles and lasting 18 days. Sea freight in comparison would take 2.5 times of this duration. Moreover, in terms of speed it is faster than sea freight and in terms of cost effectiveness it is cheaper than airfreight.

China understands how geoeconomics work and how to fashion suitable business strategy in order to eliminate waste as well as delay simultaneously. Therefore, it is not surprising that even during the pandemic, production in China continued regardless and supply chains issues are fixed forever!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist