Four fears haunting China

Indeed China is a great power sharing the table with USA and Russia. But fear haunts her, day and night. I have traced four such fears from the Chinese psyche. Let me give you a broad brush stroke of the four fears haunting China: 

To begin with let me talk about the “arch of instability” woven around her borders. In the south-west of China USA in cahoots with India mounts indirect destabilization in Tibet, Ladak in Kashmir, and Arunachal Pradesh. In the west of China, leaving Afghanistan in tatters USA led west has allowed smearing inter-tribe tension to foment so that China is forced to grapple with post withdrawal turbulence forever. In the South China Sea, Hong Kong and Taiwan are used as tools for power play to keep China under constant worry. Japan is once again pitted against China by allowing her to re-arm. The saving grace is South Korea that did not play ball with USA and opted out from Quad due mainly to geoeconomics imperative.

Splintering internal cohesion that could possibly lead to loss of Chinese territory is the second fear appearing over the horizon. USA led west is in hot pursuit to bring about disunity amongst the Chinese people in Hong Kong and Taiwan.  USA papers over the agreement between Nixon and Mao Zedong that Taiwan is integral part of China. Attempts to bring rift in the outlier was noted with bitterness along with a tinge of sarcasm when Chinese spokesman Zhao Lijian thundered recently: “The Chinese never stir trouble, but they aren't afraid of trouble either. If countries dared harm China's sovereignty, they should beware that their eyes could be blinded; it did not matter if they had five or 10 eyes". (This alludes to USA and her allies in a security alliance known as five eyes, nine eyes and fourteen eyes).

The third fear is foreign invasion. Theoretically, USA possesses the capacity to invade mainland China at the end of an intense campaign. In the early 20^th Century, China underwent tumultuous period after the suppression of the Boxer rebellion leaving an indelible scar in the heart and mind of Chinese people. “Afterwards Boxer Protocol was signed where imposition of a fine to be paid to Alliance partners. Originally the amount was 18,000 tonnes of silver which was amortized at the end of 39 years in 1940 where interest and capital amounted to 37,000 tonnes of silver which is at current value more than 30 Billion US Dollars.” (Read)

Fourth fear is nothing to with political or military spheres. It is about Geoeconomics field. China fears that her growing trade surplus could possibly trigger a multi-faceted universal trade war. At the time of writing China has US$ 540 Billion world surplus where USA alone accounts for more than half of it at US$ 275 Billion. 

Soundings made by US officials regarding Covid 19 compensation rattles China. Recently Ex-President Donald Trump accused Chinese complicity in the spread of Covid 19 which he often taunts as “Wuhan Virus”. He demanded that China pay US$ 10 Trillion to America on this account. What happens if someone files action in the Supreme Court of USA for a ruling on the payment of compensation and ensuring the right of USA administration to sequester Chinese financial assets in America? For information, China holds US$ 1.1 Trillion in US Treasuries and an estimated investment stocks of US$ 150 Billion in various companies. 

Undoubtedly, this geoeconomics vulnerability causes sleepless nights for the top rung leaders in China! 

 

Cheers! 

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist