Kiev operations, a redux of Battle of Stalingrad

Marshall Georgy Zhukov, masterminded the progress of Battle of Stalingrad from A to Z finally defeating the Nazis and negotiating the surrender of the Sixth Army of Wehrmacht.  Let me trace you the salience of the battle and the similar fate that might fall Kiev in Ukraine.

Since August 1942 Wehrmacht fought the Red Army for the control of Stalingrad which remained as the single most gateway to the Caucasus oil fields. The Fuhrer was beset with dwindling energy resources in the hands of Germans and badly needed the Russian oil. It was not a walk in the park for Germans. Under the guidance of Marshall Zhukov, Russians were valiantly defending their position. 

Fuhrer poured more men and material drawn from other theatres to Stalingrad because on the one hand the intensity of war is equally balanced on both sides and re-supply being of crucial importance. The other was reluctance by the Fuhrer to avoid being bogged down. Devastation continued unabated; toll of men dead was passing 2 million and the entire city was systematically razed to the ground.

Marshall Zhukov adopted a brilliant strategy of reducing the ability of Wehrmacht to continue battling and enhancing the Red Army to get onto the top of the situation. Here are the vectors: 

1. Hugging the Germans: To slow down advance by Germans, Red Army made constant foray into the German ranks whose war doctrine is based on co-ordination of tanks & artillery, infantry along with the use of ground aircrafts. 

2. Interdicting re-supply:  German war command resupplied forces mainly via land and when Russians blocked it resorted to Luftwaffe. Not to be outdone Russians shot down as many aircrafts as possible. This made re-supplying the German Sixth army in Stalingrad theatre a daunting proposition for the Germans. 

3. Retaliatory artillery barrage: Immense dependence on artillery and heavy bombardment by Germans was a big plus especially when they brought out railroad guns. Marshall Zhukov arranged setting up of counter artillery on the banks of Volga River that was able to retaliate for artillery fire from Germans and some cases initiating same into vital positions of the Third Army.

4. Using snipers: Russians have an unblemished reputation as snipers in action. The use of snipers firing on senior commanders was something the Germans never expected. As commanders were gunned down attacking German army began to be demoralised.

5. Final trump card was after surrounding the Fifth Army, Russians closed every avenue of getting essential staples and more than anything else, drinking water from the river Volga and wells located in the outer perimeter of the city of Stalingrad.

Friedrich Paulus the General commanding Fifth Army sent an urgent telegram to Fuhrer requesting permission to surrender. As expected the Fuhrer declined and promoted Paulus as Field Marshall. The hint was since no German Field Marshall has ever surrendered Paulus was expected to commit suicide. But this could not solve the problem of getting food & water to the starving men. So on January 31, 1943 Paulus along with 22 other Generals surrendered to Marshall Zhukov. More than 90,000 German soldiers gave up and the process was completed on February 2, 1943. 

Will history repeat this time in Kiev, Ukraine, roles reversed? 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Russians are coming with Ruble!

Putin once said “Stability, predictability, & reliability are important for an international currency.  USA doesn’t value USD as an international reserve currency & apparently they don’t value it very much since it’s used as an instrument of competition and political struggle”.  Barring, Russia the usage of USD opened a new vista: Russians are coming with Ruble

In basic economics we study the function of money as of four fold:  a medium of exchange, a store of value, a unit of account, and a standard of deferred payment. Out of these the first is where the trading part comes in second broaches the idea of reserve currency, third as a common dominator and the last one  shows  how debts are created and paid.

America and the West have frozen whatever reserves Russia lodged in the correspondence banks in the form of Dollar and Euro. Putin commented: “The collective West, by freezing Russian reserves, declared a default on Russia and drew a line under the reliability of its currencies”. All the four functions of money as related to Dollar & Euro had been annulled and therefore these two currencies in addition to others that impose similar sanctions are no longer useful for the Russia Federation.

A beaming Putin who has strategy in his vein made a counter move that almost rattled the Western world and sent shock waves throughout the global financial markets. He said: “From now on, payments from the EU & other western countries including USA for gad purchases must be made in Rubles”.

In point blank Putin rendered currencies used by unfriendly countries as irrelevant so are not welcome in Russia. He went on saying that Ruble as mode of payment would be extended to hydro carbon products including petroleum, metals & minerals, commodities and every other product made in Russia.

This sums up the result in two ways:

1. Either pay in Rubles or be kicked out from the Russian market

2. Any other parties willing to trade in Ruble can enter the Russian market

The net result is seen in three ways:

1.  Ruble shoots up in price due to demand supply dynamics. Few countries in the West possess significant volume of Ruble. US Dollar and Euro would steadily fall in value vis-à-vis Ruble. Since Russian Central Bank is the monopoly seller of Ruble the West has to line up to the bank with gold, which would be assayed within Russia. The problem is how to transport the gold to Russia due to the travel restrictions imposed by the countries that imposed these sanctions originally.

2. USD is currently pegged to the global trade as medium of exchange. This gives the strength to the otherwise weak Dollar. By this counter move Putin has taken the sheen out of the USD dramatically. 

3. All these unfriendly countries USA, EU, Australia Canada, Singapore, South Korea and others have to find a via media to trade with Russia. On the one hand we see the emergence of Yuan. On the other, the roll back of the sanctions directly or indirectly. In the latter case it is simply backdooring!

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Russia extending Black Sea coastline

It was not a stated cause for the special operations embarked upon by Russia in Ukraine beginning February 24. The real cause is to extend the coastline Russia officially has in the black Sea which was a meagre 800 km. As and when hostilities conclude in few months’ time Russia would have app. 2,960 km a whopping 370% increase. Oh my good heavens!

The Czarist Russia is back with a new face: “Putinocracy”, a revanchist strategy of dominating the Black Sea environs. Leave apart the 14 odd battles Russia fought against the Ottomans in the last four centuries, the net gain Russia getting out of Ukraine primarily and from the Black sea secondarily tantamount to the largest sea grab in history.

Indeed the fault lies on America led NATO, who bent upon eastward expansion to its logical conclusion made Bucharest Declaration in April 2008.  Much hype was placed on Ukraine and Georgia as star entrants to the Alliance. Evidently, alarm bells rang in the halls of Kremlin. Citing humanitarian concerns, Putin delivered the first salvo. Grabbing Abkhazia with an estimated 160 km sea-front plus four seaports in good working order: Gogra, Sokhumi, Gudauta and Ochamchire.

NATO handed over one more plate to Putin, this time engineering a colour revolution in Ukraine unseating Yanukovych in 2014 and gradually bringing Nazi & Rightist group to rule Ukraine. Right from the beginning Putin wanted Crimea badly which was earlier ceded to Ukraine by Khrushchev in 1954. Already having the army oiled and ready Putin sent his shock troops that took Crimea almost bloodlessly. Subsequent referendum held in Crimea, as expected, endorsed it as part of Russia. Gain another coastline length of 760 km, with plums in the form of well-maintained ports including coveted Sevastopol, Yalta and Theodosia.

Present conflict engulfed the Sea of Azov with 360 km coastline originally shared by and between Russia & Ukraine falling in its entirety under the control of Kremlin. Port city of Mariupol is already in the hands of Russian forces and another Port city Berdyansk is just a low hanging fruit. Kerch Port, straddling Crimea and Sea of Azov as the entry point, is in Russian possession.

The matrix is now very clear. Russia is contesting the entire black Sea coast line of Ukraine beyond Crimea. Kherson is flipped in a quick foray. Mykolaiv is next to fall and Odessa is under bombardment. 

I tallied the extent of Black Sea coast line. Russia originally had 800 km. part of which facing the Azov Sea. Adding the acquisition from Abkhazia and Crimea it extended to 1720 km. Azov victory lands another 240 km. (Originally belonging to Ukraine) jacking up the total to 1960 km. My presumption is Russia will gain further 1,000 km before hostilities cease. By then Russia emerges the largest coast line holder of Black Sea with close upon 2,960 km. This is tad more than half of the entire Black Sea coast line of 5,800 km!

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Biden declares war against Putin, in Warsaw

“For God’s sake this man (Putin) cannot remain in power” thundered Joe Biden the POTUS in Warsaw, Poland. That means he has effectively declared war against Putin but not against Russia. This is the first time an American President has made such a threat against a sitting leader of any country. What is behind all these?

America realized lately that she has lost the narrative in Ukraine where the conflict is raging much to the chagrin of America and the West. Russians are advancing, consolidating and using pincer movements that were made famous in the World War II successfully. The plot of having Ukraine in NATO is unravelling, so to speak. 

So what the solo Superpower can do. She can choose either confront a nuclear armed Russia one to one or with the coalition of willing, a selected bunch of nations in NATO, EU and elsewhere. But this is apocalypse as Russian hypersonic missile can make short work of globe in a jiffy. Or choose a stratagem of engineering colour revolution, this time in Russia proper.

Biden appears to be a joker to the rest of the world trying to make this type of explosive comments that you generally hear when heavy weight boxers boast before entering the ring. But there is a method in the madness of the PORUS. 

He is following time tested communication strategy that intends to generate one or more of the following reactions from those whom the message is   targeted:

1. For domestic audience:  Guys we are strong we can finish off Putin if he is trying to be funny. By this Biden appeals to the mind of American exceptionalism. 

2. For Russian Mafia & Oligarchs. It is time for regime change, you guys move up and settle with Putin, so that, America can work with a puppet or drunk like Yeltsin. 

3. For the Poles, a little bit of gung ho, you guys are great; now get ready to do something about Polesie and Vollhynia regions in the western Ukraine where Poland has territorial disputes and most people living there are of Polish origin.

4. For the global audience, Hey, there, do not mess with us. You know the fate of Saddam, Gadhafi et al. So toe our line and impose all the sanctions we have promulgated so far against Russia. 

But before the second message that is regime change gets delivered to the hall of power in Kremlin, White House has promptly walked back with an official explanation: “The President’s point was that Putin cannot be allowed to exercise power over his neighbours or the region.  He was not discussing Putin’s power in Russia, or regime change.”

The rest were delivered in good order!

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist