Russia pulls carpet out from under Lithuania

A motion submitted in the Russian Duma by a member of party aligned with Putin went almost unreported in the main stream media. This draft resolution requires the Duma to cancel the recognition of Lithuania as independent state and claim it as part of Russia, a Geotactics measure that can bring chaos in Baltics:

In an earlier occasion, Russia cautioned Finland regarding her neutrality as status of Alan under international treaty mandates it as neutral & demilitarized entity. Besides Saimaa Canal in Finland using land leased by Russia reinforces Finland remaining neutral. See my blog “Russia traps Finland over Alan Islands” (Here).

Lithuania did not follow the independence process in accordance with the provisions of Acts of the Russian Federation. For example under Article 67.1 of the constitution of Russian Federation is the legal successor of the USSR over its territory. Any country that wishes to go independent must firstly conduct under aegis of UN a referendum to secure more than 50% op votes in favour.

In the case of Lithuanian, nationalists there declared independence on March 11, 1990 without the consent of Russia and eleven months after that a sham referendum was held on 9 February 1991 without any international institution overseeing it. However, State Council of USSR decided to adopt a decree in according recognition.

This decree is now being challenged on three counts:

• The procedure adopted by Lithuania over independence  is null and void on legal grounds
• The recognition of Lithuanian Independence adopted by USSR State council was wrong in terms of the constitution of Russia
• No transitional period was established for consideration of all contentious issues, including Russian speaking people living in Lithuania and  Kaliningrad Oblast of Russia that borders Lithuania in the southwest 

This motion introduced by Yevgeny Fydorov, Member of Duma, from United Russia Party that is aligned with Vladimir Putin calls for the cancellation of recognition of Lithuanian independence as proper procedure was not followed.

A  great move of  Geotactics, that brings unimaginable effects: For Lithuania it is pulling the carpet from under her feet along with having Sword of Damocles hanged over her head;  For NATO being caught in a cul-de-sac re north European expansion; For China a sense of relief as she has troubled relationship with Lithuania over the latter’s mollycoddling with Taiwan. 

Putin is placed in a position where he has the magic wand of strategy that can finish off Lithuania!   

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

 

 

Blame game plays when risk game fails

It is an aphorism that if you don't play the risk game today, you are going to play the blame game tomorrow! In Ukraine parties other than Russia did not do the risk game correctly. As a result now each and every one is playing the blame game. Here is the synopsis:

America the lead party has the sole project of embroiling Russia in endless war in Ukr so that her geopolitical ambitions could be curtailed. In addition her performance in Syria was not to the liking of Washington who found itself playing a second fiddle. Having engineered the head of change, America later went pell-mell getting a comedian Zelensky appointed as President.

Constantly nibbling him America sought and won non-implementation of Minsk I and Minsk II protocols that proposed sell-government for Donbass. For almost 8 years Ukraine bombarded Donbass relentlessly at the behest of America. When the real action started in February, this year as Russians juggernaut rolled into Ukr, USA got into a proxy war using NATO partners in a coalition of willing but without putting her boots.

Military operation with a dose of Psy & info war, was wired from Pentagon into the battle field. Arms & ammunition flowed without interruption so did the mercenaries under the pay of the West. “Fight till the last Ukrainian” became the battle cry on one part and demonizing Russia in global forum on the other part the coalition was hell-bent to destroy Ukr as a unitary state.

Before entering into battle directly or indirectly a comprehensive risk & reward assessment must be undertaken to ascertain the likely scenario that could prevail say after this number of weeks & month into the battle. Intelligence failure must also be factored in such calculation. In other words understand Russian strategy.

Needless to say, from the start America & west got all the calculations wrong. Russia using less than ten percent of her military men with almost 1 to 3 ratio where the advantage lies with Ukr performed remarkably well with minimum loss in men & materials. At the time of writing she has captured almost quarter of Ukr territory. 

The blame game has now replaced the risk game. Biden blaming Zelensky; not to be outdone Zelkensky blaming Army, in turn Army blaming Zelensky and his cabal so goes the chain meandering endlessly towards the opposite side of Russia. For all these Russia is grinding down Ukraine to dust as part of her grand strategy!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

Rasmussen calls for Economic NATO

One time Secretary General of NATO, Rasmussen wants to add economics to Article 5 of the Charter so that all members are bound in collective defence for mutual assistance when financial threats are faced with. Though sounds out of place as NATO is a security set-up he is trying to bring it more relevance.

Simply put, Rasmussen is calling for the creation of an economic version of the Article 5. Originally Article 5 provided that if a NATO member is the victim of an armed attack, presumably from outside, all members of Alliance should treat this attack as against them collectively and take action as deemed necessary, to assist the victim. Incidentally Article 5 was evoked only once that too By America in response to terrorist attack on Twin Towers on 11 September 2001.

My strategy analysis of the implications of this geoeconomics call is as follows:

• Already NATO is in tatters with former President Trump calling it obsolete and President Macron describing it as brain-dead. Letting down NATO aspirant Ukraine during attack by Russia is still haunting members across the Alliance.
• Widening the ambit of NATO, to stay relevant insofar as it relates to collective security, mutual defence and strengthening members in military side is understandable. But wading through finance & economics has rung alarm bells in European capitals.
• Clearly, this toes the line America follows where military power is an extension of economic power and the tools of financial & trade sanctions are continuously applied so that militarily she can maintain the superpower status.
• In the recent past, sanctions imposed by both America & EU against Russia have boomeranged on these countries especially in Europe where prices of vital commodities fuel, gas and grain have skyrocketed. Not only the households but even big corporates are protesting against the spiralling cost of living.
• Whether Rasmussen implied it or not the world is aghast at the notion that he is trying to target both Russia & China when he mentioned “economic aggression from authoritarian nations”. Further aggravation arises as he is painting would be victims as “democracies” a catch all word that groups countries across continents that are in the western camp!
  

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Snake Island Russian counter attack, changed the course of war

Contemporary military historians would record Snake Island counter attack by Russia as the watershed event that changed the course of Ukraine war. As a, colossal failure on the part of Ukraine it gave moral boost to Russia and sapped morale of Ukros. Moreover, it made the Island doubly significant. Details here:

A key salience of Russian special military operation was the capture of Snake Island known as “Zmiiyi” on 24 February, a day after it began earnestly. Memorably, it was the last engagement of flag ship Moskva before it sank in the Black Sea. Located about 30 miles away from the coast line of Rumania and Ukraine this inconsequent and insignificant 42 acres rock outcrop turned out as an “unsinkable destroyer” for Russia with heavy strategic importance.

Under advice by British Intelligence, Zelensky despite objections from the Ukro general command attempted a doomed retake on May 9 that resulted in massive losses for Ukraine in terms of men and military assets. A cocktail of 14 planes, 10 helis, 3 landing crafts & 20 drones out of which Turkish made Byraktar numbering 9 were dusted along with about 50 Ukro commandos. What is surprising is that this Russian counter attack was accomplished by Kalibr missiles launched from Crimea.

Major General Igor Komshenkov Russian military spokesperson dubbed the Ukro retake offensive as “a senseless PR action mindless from the military standpoint”. I beg to differ from the Major General. I think Zelensky did the right thing by ordering the retake of Zmiiyi. My analysis of the strategy and tactical manoeuvre is spelled out in the following bullet points:

• Snake Island lends strategic significance to Russian armed forces who can oversea the entire stretch of Black Sea with special focus over North & West
• Russia can easily interdict naval crafts sallying forth towards both Ukraine and Rumania where NATO has its air base in Mihail Kogᾰlniceanu.  Besides Odessa in Ukraine and Constanta in Rumania come under Russian surveillance
• Snake Island is just crows flying distance away from the mouth of Danube River that not only delineates the border between these two countries but economically vital for them. 
• Finally as and when Russia locates S-500 missiles in Zmiiyi, it is game over for America led western armed forces in the Black Sea. 
  

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist