Iran, strategic patience wins her day

Persian patience is historical. It has seen empires come and go for several millenniums now. Most of them get finally integrated within Iran for example Romans and Mongols. Even after Iranian revolution of 1979 she continues in her chosen path of strategic patience.  Proof: her geoeconomics clout

In the heyday of Persian Shah, Iran called the shot in the Arab backyard not to speak of rising Pakistan & Afghanistan to her East. As a Middle-Eastern Strongman, Shah had the best of armed forces and the immense wealth in the form of hydrocarbon. Despite all that Shah exhibited the same strategic patience that was the hall mark of Iranian psyche.

The Iranian Revolution of 1979 demoed that only the rulers have changed and not the strategy. During and in the aftermath of Iran-Iraq War she never went to antagonise the Arab neighbours except for on-off declaration of the Ayatollah’s battle cry regarding abolishing Arab Monarchies in line with what Iran has done by expelling Shah Pahlavi.

As Israel consolidated her grip over Arab sheikdoms after the 1967 & 1973 wars she has to content with a rising albeit a weakened power in the Mid-East arena in the form of a steadfast Iran committed to liberate Jerusalem Al-Aqsa Mosque. A Shiite Crescent slowly formed connecting Iraq, Syria along with Lebanon that could easily make Iran a power to be reckoned with in Persian Gulf as well as in Eastern Mediterranean.

So began the Iran–Israel confrontation. Covert strikes, assassination of scientists & military men, grey zone operations using sworn enemies of Iran were in the repertoire of Israel. Yet Iran exercised great restraint. Matters came to a boil when an adjacent building of Iranian embassy in Damascus was destroyed on the fools’ day. Giving notice to all concerned parties Iran let go of a barrage of drones & missiles over Israel.

The cost for this surgical strike for Iran was minimal; less than US$ 30 Million. Defending countries including USA & UK expended close upon US$ 3 Billion for a day’s operation. Here lies the first proof of Iran’ geoeconomics prowess: the relative cost of attack & defence in the matter of economy of force.

A new strategic deterrence is established demonstrating Iran’s potential both in terms of military preparedness and geoeconomics power spectrum. Let me give you few indications:

Despite all the hullabaloo of American led Western sanctions Iran goes out effortlessly doing business with her partners. Foreign trade in 2023 amounted to about US$ 153 Billion where more than one-third consists of non-oil products especially armaments. IMF estimates that Iran’s foreign reserves shows an uptick of US$ 1.6 Billion over the 2022 figure  to reach the ball-park figure of US$ 21.1 Billion in 2023.   

China tops the importers’ table along with UAE, Iraq, Turkey, India and Russia following suit. As member of BRICS & SCO, Iran is fast becoming an economic giant. After joining the Eurasian Economic Union in 2018, goods from Iran are flooding into the Eurasian trade arena due to cheap prices.

By exercising strategic patience with her hostile neighbours Iran is now reaping the well-deserved bonus in geoeconomics!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

Nasrallah reads the tea leaves

Hassan Nasrallah Secretary General of Hezbollah which is a political party and at the same time a militant organization committed to liberate Lebanese territory captured by Israel and also to free Palestinian homeland in the Levant. He is good at reading the tea leaves:

Nasrallah is known for his strategic mind in understanding what Sun Tzu says as ‘know your enemy’. I feel that mentioning the full quote by the grand statretegist is not out of place. Here it is:

“If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle.”

It is crystal clear that Nasrallah observes the enemy intent, behaviour and the delivery of the offensive and defensive Operations by Israeli forces. In addition to military affairs Nasrallah also understands that Israel drives its power from two areas: American support and Israeli geoeconomics clout. The former is not within his means to counter but as regards to geoeconomics he has shown his dexterity. Here is the SWOT analysis of what he has done so far:

Strength: Continue the hit and run operations in Northern Israel so that the major geoeconomics centres that produce high tech products in Israel are placed under constant threat of attacks from outside.

Weakness: An all-out war with Israel is not feasible from the military point of view as Hezbollah is no match to the quantitative & qualitative armoury of Israel. At any time ground invasion takes place, Lebanon would suffer most. Hence negating a full & comprehensive war must be done using escalatory management system of offence & defence and climbing up & down.

Opportunity: Nasrallah believes that America would be exasperated before long, with domestic issues such as illegal immigrants, crime, corruption, denial of freedom for her citizens along with vocal opposition to Charles Schwab and his World Economic Forum (WEF) prescriptions that would undo all what United States stood for since 20^th Century. In fact it is that geoeconomics power US wielded so far would boomerang at her.

Threat: Emerging scenario in the post BRICS era would make USA a weak economy resulting in constant fighting with Latin American countries in the South. As Monroe doctrine forbade outside powers to intervene in American affairs both North & South America fight it out and USA would not have the time to concentrate in outside affairs including Mid-East.

The end result is America cannot protect her vassals in Europe and elsewhere. As headless chickens the erstwhile vassals including Israel had to either fold out or be destroyed in the upcoming geoeconomics milieu.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

Partial blocking of Hormuz is on the cards

Ominous announcements by IRGC apart, there is serious discussion of emerging scenario of Iran blocking Strait of Hormuz partially, is taking place amongst geoeconomics analysts. Of course there cannot be smoke without any fire. Let us delve deep:

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) a multi service arm of the Iranian Armed forces has earned a reputation similar to that of US Marines in frontal warfare as well as grey zone operations. On April 9, 2024 its commander Alireza Tangsiri made a startling announcement. He is reportedly have said that ‘a review of policy regarding Strait of Hormuz is underway as Iran views Israeli presence in UAE is deemed as existential threat’.

The crux of the matter is Israeli presence in the form of military and civil representation in UAE has been there for some time. Why all of a sudden Iran viewing it as a threat has not been explained. The bottom line is clear: Iran is getting ready to spring a surprise.

Under the aegis of Abram Accord 2020, “Dubai-Haifa Land Corridor" was established in order to connect Jebel Ali Port in UAE to Haifa port in Israel traversing Saudi Arabian and Jordanian territory. Once fully operational the transport volume is expected to be in the tune of US$ 50 to 100 Billion. Put it in another way offering a boon in geoeconomics for Israel as it enhances normalization of Arab-Jewish Entente at the expense of Palestinian liberation.

An isolated incident that occurred on April 9, 2024 as regards to the commandeering of Israeli container ship MSC Aries, in the Persian Gulf shed some light. Portuguese flagged, MSC Aries is owned & operated by Zodiac Maritime Company based in London whose major stake is held by Eyal Ofer a Jewish magnate.

More alarming news is on the way. Iranian Naval Forces are keeping their powder ready to partially block Israeli shipping thru Strait of Hormuz initially and extend it to other commercial ships plying to and fro any ports in UAE that transports goods related to Israel.

Now it is no longer a matter of conjecture that the policy regarding closure of Strait of Hormuz has been already reviewed. It is not the question of ‘if’ but ‘when’ partial blocking is to commence!

The Global North has to accept the unescapable fact that ‘Iran has arrived as a great force in geoeconomics’ not to mention her military prowess & preparedness to take on the West in her own backyard.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist