Persian patience is historical. It has seen empires come and go for several millenniums now. Most of them get finally integrated within Iran for example Romans and Mongols. Even after Iranian revolution of 1979 she continues in her chosen path of strategic patience. Proof: her geoeconomics clout
In the heyday of Persian Shah, Iran called the shot in the Arab backyard not to speak of rising Pakistan & Afghanistan to her East. As a Middle-Eastern Strongman, Shah had the best of armed forces and the immense wealth in the form of hydrocarbon. Despite all that Shah exhibited the same strategic patience that was the hall mark of Iranian psyche.
The Iranian Revolution of 1979 demoed that only the rulers have changed and not the strategy. During and in the aftermath of Iran-Iraq War she never went to antagonise the Arab neighbours except for on-off declaration of the Ayatollah’s battle cry regarding abolishing Arab Monarchies in line with what Iran has done by expelling Shah Pahlavi.
As Israel consolidated her grip over Arab sheikdoms after the 1967 & 1973 wars she has to content with a rising albeit a weakened power in the Mid-East arena in the form of a steadfast Iran committed to liberate Jerusalem Al-Aqsa Mosque. A Shiite Crescent slowly formed connecting Iraq, Syria along with Lebanon that could easily make Iran a power to be reckoned with in Persian Gulf as well as in Eastern Mediterranean.
So began the Iran–Israel confrontation. Covert strikes, assassination of scientists & military men, grey zone operations using sworn enemies of Iran were in the repertoire of Israel. Yet Iran exercised great restraint. Matters came to a boil when an adjacent building of Iranian embassy in Damascus was destroyed on the fools’ day. Giving notice to all concerned parties Iran let go of a barrage of drones & missiles over Israel.
The cost for this surgical strike for Iran was minimal; less than US$ 30 Million. Defending countries including USA & UK expended close upon US$ 3 Billion for a day’s operation. Here lies the first proof of Iran’ geoeconomics prowess: the relative cost of attack & defence in the matter of economy of force.
A new strategic deterrence is established demonstrating Iran’s potential both in terms of military preparedness and geoeconomics power spectrum. Let me give you few indications:
Despite all the hullabaloo of American led Western sanctions Iran goes out effortlessly doing business with her partners. Foreign trade in 2023 amounted to about US$ 153 Billion where more than one-third consists of non-oil products especially armaments. IMF estimates that Iran’s foreign reserves shows an uptick of US$ 1.6 Billion over the 2022 figure to reach the ball-park figure of US$ 21.1 Billion in 2023.
China tops the importers’ table along with UAE, Iraq, Turkey, India and Russia following suit. As member of BRICS & SCO, Iran is fast becoming an economic giant. After joining the Eurasian Economic Union in 2018, goods from Iran are flooding into the Eurasian trade arena due to cheap prices.
By exercising strategic patience with her hostile neighbours Iran is now reaping the well-deserved bonus in geoeconomics!
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff Rajulu
Business Strategist
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Business Strategist
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