If Iran closes Strait of Hormuz….

Strait of Hormuz is a narrow semi-circular bend way in the Persian Gulf. The naval topography favours Iran to close this artery at any time she wants. Now that Houthis have effectively closed Bab-al Mandeb, Iran may be tempted to do so. Here are the nuts & bolts:

More than 25% of the global oil traffic traverse thru Persian Gulf something about 21 million barrels per day of crude. KSA, UAE, Kuwait and Iraq depends on this waterway to export their oil. Besides about one third of the sea born LPG, mainly from Qatar is carried through this artery.

The Hormuz Strait is 90 nautical miles in length curving out of the sea way in a bottle neck located between Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Whereas at the narrowest point the artery is of 33 KM of breath throughout it hovers around in a fairly narrow band between 35 km to 96 km., unescapably, the narrowest point is under the Iranian control. That alone gives Iran geoeconomics clout unheard so far in the navigation annals.

There have been precedents of its closure. In 1972 both Iran & Oman closed it jointly after their dispute of the extent of ownership of the Hormuz gateway. Later the matter was settled to the advantage of Iran due mainly to the influence Persian Shah wielded.

On 18, April 1988, US Navy began a day’s hostilities to re-open Iran’s closure of the Strait. Since then the US Fifth Fleet located at Bahrain is tasked to protect commercial shipping throughout the Persian Gulf.

But Houthi’s success in interdicting naval operations in the Bab-al Mandeb along with Red Sea extended to Oman Sea as well has changed the table and heralds fairly strong position on the part of Iran.  

Ground situation has changed now so is the naval power dynamics. America and/or the Global North cannot rule the waves as it was used to be in the halcyon days. Iran has already demonstrated what she can do when she launched quantum salvo of drones, and missiles on pre-announced date of 13 April 2024 and pre-targeted locations deep inside Israel dubbed as “Operation True Promise”.  The cost benefit alone favoured Iran. For a meagre US$ 30 million outlay by Iran, Israel and her partners had to run through more than US$ 1.35 Billion in deterrence activities.

Could this be replicated in the closure of Strait of Hormuz? Only time and geoeconomics would tell.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist