Forever war, domestic economy to geoeconomics

Forever war has to be initially financed by domestic economics but in the long run you have to resort to geoeconomics manoeuvres. Here is how America juggles domestic and global economics to get through in her forever war:

Domestically the first step is to increase public expenditure where allocation of funds are funnelled into. There is no consideration given to the aspect of productivity in terms internal relevance. To wit, build domestic infra-structure in terms of roads & transport, health & education facilities, health& safety are priorities abandoned. Instead more of the allocation goes for increasing non-productive sectors such as arms & ammunitions manufacture.

Finance is raised by way of debt and taxation. As regards to debt short term ones are preferred and in the case of taxation indirect taxes such as VAT bands are elevated. Additionally money printing is accelerated. Here the checks and balances are still maintained. One way to do is to allow inflation to rise and thereafter be stabilised at an optimum level such that money earned through increased wages and profits does not necessarily make real wages or profits rise up in proportion.

Once the domestic economy is manoeuvred attention turns towards geoeconomics. An export drive is undertaken where arms & ammunition, rockets & missiles, tanks & vehicles and planes & ships are rolled out to be exported to allies insisting that they use these for their own benefit in defence posture.  These are priced with premium so that the recipients pay for the forever war of America more than what Americans themselves cough out for it. True enough, part of the armoury is used to persecute forever war by America herself.

This way American power in the geoeconomics clout is not only maintained but enhanced. For example after the Shock & Awe operation in Iraq, the military industrial complex became a major export earner. This also helped the Americans to shut out other global competitions in the arms trade.

The crux of the matter is American military industrial complex can call the shots in politics & economics within United States and elsewhere in geoeconomics globally.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

Should Iran enter nuclear fuel business?

When the controversy was raging some time ago regarding Iran nuclear issue International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) proposed that the Iranian stockpile of low-enriched uranium (LEU) could be converted to nuclear fuel abroad.

Iranian administration objected to this vehemently and commenced the conversion process within Iran that would be turned into nuclear fuel domestically. For example Natanz is one such location where Iran succeeded in mastering the nuclear product cycle of enriching uranium to different levels. Although originally this level was fixed at 3.67 per cent — well below the level of enrichment required to make an atomic weapon, Iran improved her enrichment level using high capacity centrifuges. After passing 20% later exceeding to the critical level at 60% Iran is now cruising along more than 80%.  Besides, Natanz is the centre for her civilian nuclear programme.

Recent pronouncement by IRCG leaders indicate that Iran is ready to transfer civilian nuclear technology to counties that require it. Although this statement did not specifically say whether this is construction of civilian facilitates or merely supplying nuclear fuel one thing is certain: the stark truth of Iran being in a position to supply nuclear fuel for power plants in developing countries.

Iran, being at the threshold nuclear power could unveil a new scientific order in nuclear field where the established players Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia cannot compete with Iran in the quantum and most importantly on the price.

For America it is a better business strategy to diversify her energy supply sources. Now that restrictions are being placed as a consequence of Ukraine war on the import of Russian fuel cycle which is estimated to be around 20% of the total imports this quantum need be sourced from elsewhere.  Iran perhaps fits the bill provided of course, some form of intermediation is found similar to the Iran Contra Affair decades ago.

Business makes strange bed follows as does politics. Iran under the smoke screen of being near in exploding a nuclear device which anyway  she is barred by religious diktat to do so, is quietly pursuing large scale civilian nuclear programme targeted at turning out medicinal products, energy generation within Iran and nuclear fuel exports elsewhere.

If level heads prevail both in Tehran and Washington nuclear fuel from Iran to USA would be a win-win business strategy.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

Russia decides minister of defence be a civilian

It is indeed a surprise. Russia in the midst of an existential war decides a civilian to become minister of defence. Well only Russia has the ability to springs this kind of surprise. The new defence guy is Andrei Belousov

A profile of the defence minister as gleaned from the facts enumerated by twitterati Victor vicktop55 (@vicktop55) is given below

Andrei Belousov after graduating from the Faculty of Economics of Moscow State University joined the state service and rose in his career thus: 

·        1986 to 2006, worked at the Institute of National Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences

·        2000 to 2006, worked as a freelance adviser to the Prime Minister, while concurrently functioning as leader at the Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting

·        2006 to 2008, served as Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade

·        2008 to 2012, headed the government department of economics and finance

·        2012 to 2013, worked as Minister of Economic Development

·      2013 to 2020, worked as an assistant to the president followed by being appointed as First Deputy Prime Minister of the government.

·        For almost a month, while PM Mishusin was on sick leave acted as prime minister in his place.

Why then a person who has no hands on experience in matters of defence be appointed as defence minister of Russian Federation? Let me read the mind of master strategist Vladimir Putin:

1. Andrei beat the US & the West in the sanctions game. He did not resort to debt financing. In fact he ensured the debt to GDP ratio hovers around 20% securing a top notch place in the European Table

2. Right now the defence budget is around 6% of the GDP. Not too high when compared to the Soviet days of 10% of GDP at the lowest. Lopsided defence expenditure during Soviet times brought its collapse. Hence bringing down the defence expenditure in absolute terms might appear not feasible at this juncture whereas tweaking it with qualitative changes would make it productive. Only a civilian that too an economist can perform this miraculous task. Andrei fits the matrix.

3. Now the critical phase of the defensive posture in Ukraine war is over heralding the offensive phase by bringing in more land to the Russian control is necessitated. Economic development of Novorossiya therefore must be given equal footing to that of Russia proper.

4. In the immediate future Russia must turn the table against the West by making her geoeconomics power centre vibrant with military playing equally important role as does economics. Integration of economics with military and the connected political structure is vital for the people and the government of Russia.

5. Therefore, I as the President of the Russian Federation appoints Andrei Belousov as the Defence Minister of Russia!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist