This is not a text book example. When hostilities begin involving two counties either of it declares war or denotes it as invasion citing a reason and rhyme. On February 24, Russia crossed Ukraine border and called it as “special operations”. Russians know the nuance. Here is my take:
As mentioned in the preamble any hostilities that begins must have a reason, rhyme probably a catchy name such as “shock & awe” that Americans used in their Iraq war. Diplomatic barrage and info loading make you focus on specific aims & objectives. Destroying WMD was used as the primary objective in Iraq war.
Russia on the other hand stated the aims in much broader and cloudy terms such as de-nazification and de-militarization. What they meant by this is still shrouded in mystery. As the Ukraine war progressed the world found that Russia is bent upon destroying the military capacity of Ukraine to wage relentless bombardment of civilian targets in Donbass. Was this the only objective? No! Russian military ensured each and every Ukraine assets that facilitates war enterprise be systematically degraded.
Neither the operation was massive enough. Numerical parity does not prove the Russia did not pour sufficient military assets into the war theatre. Soldiers amounted to less than 120,000 compared to the Ukraine’s army, allied forces and reserves that totalled more than 500,000, a 3 to 1 negative ratio. In a typical invasion the ratio must be at-least 2 to 1 on the positive side. Theoretically it means Russia must amass a million soldiers on the border or inside Ukraine; this did not happen.
What surprises most is that no specific goals are vocalised in any form. Russians are hiding behind their published objectives of de-nazification and de-militarization. Here resides the Russian maskirovka strategy as always in Russian history for the last nine centuries war objectives evolve as time goes on rather that set at the beginning.
Russian maskirovka strategy has the apex point: the difference between what is stated goal and what is intended or real goal. Russians are trained to keep their secrets in their sleeve. It requires the brains of thousand American and NATO intelligence operatives to find out exactly what they are after.
Normally war operations have a plan of action or programme. In Ukraine war no specific plan was announced. Equally important is that any military campaign must set a time table. In Ukraine war there is none shown. What we have is the imputations of western media and intelligence agencies coming out with endless pronouncements that at worst queered the pitch. It is sheer naivety to assume that Russians do not know the art of war.
Russians are simply following the strategy of Carl von Clausewitz: “This is the war to end all other wars”. I leave it to the readers to figure out what are the other wars!
Cheers!
Muthu
Ashraff Rajulu
Business Strategist
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Business Strategist
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