Kaliningrad fiasco, Quo Vadis?

Lithuania has just disturbed the hornets’ nest by blocking Russian goods passing via railway through her territory. Recognised as Russian enclave in Baltic Sea since end of World War II, connectivity between Kaliningrad Oblast and the mainland Russia is sacrosanct. Where is Lithuania heading: Quo Vadis?

Sanctions regime imposed by EU over Russia stipulates banning of certain categories of goods exported from Russia to EU countries. Taking this as broad license to kill and also instigated by both America & NATO, Lithuania has imposed blanket application of the sanctions blocking more than 50% of goods that traverse from Russia to the enclave.

Firstly, there is no such thing as export to Kaliningrad because the Oblast per se is a territory of Russia albeit without a direct land border. Under international law & practice no such blocking is tenable as there is no actual export taking place. Technically it is domestic transport of goods between two territories of a sovereign nation. 

Any violation of the international law could constitute a casus belli. Citing it as a cause for battle Russia has the right to intervene militarily to set the matter right. Furthermore under United Nations R2P (Right to Protect) Russia has every right to protect her citizen in her westernmost Federal State of Russia.

Kaliningrad passed into the hands of Soviet Union at the conclusion of World War II. Originally founded in 1255 A.D., Kaliningrad which was known earlier by her German name Konigsberg was the easternmost part of Prussian Empire and lately Nazi Germany. It hosts the Baltic Sea Head Quarters of the Russian Navy.

There are three ways to reach this oblast. From St. Petersburg, port city of Northern Russia via Baltic Sea. Secondly through land border crossing both Latvia and Lithuania. Third one cutting across Belarus and then Lithuania which is the shortest route. Under international convention Russia has the right to choose the shortest route possible and in this case Belarus, Lithuania to final destination of Kaliningrad is the one opted for.

Lithuania taking cover under EU sanctions, stated that she is only implementing EU regulations and not her own design. Meanwhile, as the matter started boiling, EU has announced measures to relax regulations regarding passage of Russian goods via Lithuanian territory to and fro Kaliningrad. Russia has made her displeasure known in no uncertain terms. 

What happens next is going to be crucial for business strategy and geoeconomics. What happens if Russia orders blockade of Lithuania in the Baltic Sea citing security reasons? Or as can happen in the wildest dreams possible, begin to station thermo-nuclear weapons over the border of Belarus and Lithuania? Whatever it is, Lithuania appears not to know where she is really heading for!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist