Delivering strategic defeat to Russia, where it failed?

Strategic defeat of Russia has become a fashionable narrative in western countries. More of a logic than of defined focus to deliver such strategic defeat to Russia, the west overlooked the fundamental mix in the Russian society that is borne out of the Soviet policy and the Czarian renaissance. Vladimir Putin is fond of both. Here are the operational salience, how America failed: 

Using Ukraine as a proxy was the first casualty of the logic. Pumping in weapons and technology apart there was no concerted effort by the belligerents on the west side of the Dnieper river to seize and possess several thousand miles of border running north to south separating Russian speaking Ukrainians from Ukraine proper. This would require by conservative estimates more than a million foot soldiers bolstered by mechanised columns with artillery, missiles and rockets. No such preparation was forthcoming though!

Secondly, in order to close all the geoeconomics spigot like exports, imports and movement of goods and personnel to and fro Russian mainland, western belligerents required system of surveillance that generates pin point accuracy in order to, at best cease the flow altogether or at worst curtail the major portion of trade getting across. That did not happen!

Closing of all exit ramps Russia could possibly use for countering economic & political sanctions could not be mapped properly because Russians are good at maskirovka and have the knack of using third party dummies to facilitate smooth functioning of economic machinery. Their use of oligarch within Russia and across Ukraine is legendary. Failed!

Jumping recently from “ forever wars” to “ frozen conflict” exposed the weakness of the west as such because Russians read it correctly that the western belligerents are getting tired of the former and scary of the latter as the economic toll was unbearable to them in prosecuting any type of hostilities. Simply put, the Ukraine adventure has drained all their resources financial and otherwise pushing them to experience much harder times comparable in scale to that of WWII. Beaten!

The miscalculation that dwarfed all others is the concept of “balancing equation”. The west thought America and NATO would be able to pool all their military might under harness in terms of stocking of Soviet Era weaponry and modern state-of-art systems. The assumption was Russia won’t be able to marshal production and technology to go in parallel with what the west showcased. There was a missing link: surge capacity. As the war raged most munitions were run through steeply and replenishments were hard to come by. It was the question of “gun without bullets”. On the other hand Russia put its factory on war footing and production went unhindered to supply and re-supply used up munitions.

Finally the vital geoeconomics lesson was overlooked. America thought Russia is still in Soviet Era, where the “Arms Race’ liquidated Russian resolve and resources ultimately folding out the Soviet Empire in 1980. What was less understood even though much evident was Putin & Russia have learnt the bitter lesson and this time around have built the geoeconomics war chest to last for considerable time?

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist