Russia calls the shot re shadow fleet

An estimated Russian fleet of 600 cargo ships are considered as shadow fleet by the West simply because these are not registered with the Lloyds Registry in London. It was the decision by EU/G7 not to allow Russian ships to be so registered. The crux of the matter is, it is not the West that is calling the shots but Russia.

Prohibiting registering of ships at Lloyds is not a great deal. There is no requirement in the International Maritime Law that all sailing ships must be so registered to transverse the oceans. The West did this in order to give strength to their sanctions regimes against the carriage of Russian oil. Western European nations especially in the Baltic Sea have made several futile attempts to interdict ships purportedly carrying Russian oil on the footing that the tanker is not registered at Lloyd therefore could be deemed as one of the shadow fleet.

Russia on the other hand would not mind getting her fleet registered at Lloyds but it was EU/G7 combo that prevailed with the Lloyds not to proceed with such registration. Consequent to this it was Lloyd that lost revenue. Furthermore, marine insurance companies located in London also had to forego handsome revenue in terms insurance premium as regards to the vessel and the contents that she carries. A point of fact is Russia pumps out 3.5 Million bpd and the bulk is transported from her ports via the Baltic Sea.

Russia has taken the following manoeuvres as part of her offset business strategy:

1. When countries such as Sweden declared part of the sea bed as Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) beyond the 12 miles territorial sea boundary, Russia countered that any ship can navigate in the EEZ without being harassed by the concerned nation as provided by the International Maritime Law.

2. Although under United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) a coastal nation is entitled to claim 200 nautical miles from her coastline as EEZ, this need be done without impinging the rights of other neighbouring nations as well the right of any vessel from any other country. Russia is adamant in that, she has the right to traverse thru such EEZ.

3. As Barack Obama once quipped “law has unintended consequences” Russia was emboldened to use her naval power in combination with air power to pre-warn and failing which attack and destroy the sea-bine assets of countries that harass Russian oil tankers.

4. Russian will and the muscled business strategy of using her military power was evident in a recent incident when Estonia sent her naval vessels to threaten Gabon flagged Argent/Jaguar which was sailing thru her EEZ. A solo SU-35 appeared over the horizon. Estonian navy vessels scrambled to retreat in a fashion that could potentially knock one on another. The Baltic Chihuahuas Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are expected to taste the bitter medicine in the offing do they persist provoking the Russian Bear!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Primakov RIC format strategy being reformatted

When a carriage train from far away region of Zhejiang province in China arrived in Tehran in February 2025 traversing more than 8,400 km lasting 14 days of journey it not only created history but heralded the dawn of new RIC format that could bring tectonic shifts in geoeconomics. Read for more:

Yevgeny Primakov, a seasoned diplomat & strategist who served as PM for Russia during 1998-99 was instrumental in introducing a strategic framework covering Russia, India and China in a trilateral format, famously known as Primakov RIC with the aim of establishing peace, security and strategic relationship among the three participants. Unwittingly, he opened up new vista presently known as multi polar world.

Sometimes dubbed as RIC Troika, this framework began during his pendency as PM Russia. Surprisingly this led to peace & prosperity not to mention the avoidance of skirmishes between India & China. Geoeconomics was the key driving force as commerce & trade started to blossom within the troika and specially between the eternal foes India & China.

As expected the border skirmish, which is to be avoided at any cost indeed happened in 2020 in Galwan Valley that put a temporary halt to the RIC Troika talkathons. Many other things happened in the meantime. India was quietly moving away from the troika by joining US brainchild of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, commonly known as Quad incorporating USA, Australia, Japan & India. Quintessentially, RIC was buried in the Himalayan Salt. Both Russia and China saw this as an attempt to put a spoke on the wheel of RIC Format.

Meanwhile, Iran was warming up towards both Russia & China. She joined the BRI beginning 2016. In June 2020, China–Iran economic partnership was initialled which obliges China to invest more than USD 400 billion during the course of 25 years. Encouraged by this, Iran signed Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Russia in January 2025.

Back to China-Iran Railway. This marvel was constructed by Chinese as well as Iranian engineers over a period of several years. From Urumqi the 8,400 km (6,460 mile) track runs through four intermediary countries connecting Almaty in Kazakhstan, Bishkek in Kirgizstan, Tashkent & Samarkand in Uzbekistan together with Ashgabat in Turkmenistan finally arriving at Tehran in Iran. The journey lasts 14 days compared to marine passage that takes more than 28 to 32 days. As this project is established under BRI the responsibility to protect it is vested with Chinese Armed Forces.

To the chagrin of India and to the lesser extent to Russia, China unabashedly has promoted Iran as the middle “I” in the new RIC Format. Yevgeny Primakov might be turning in his graves. His dream of Russia India China partnership, has failed the litmus test.

China understands that Iran is rising. So too her geoeconomics clout. India on the other hand is confused as regards to her priorities. The crux of the matter is China sees Iran as friend and ally whereas India is conceived maximum a frenemy. So the dawn of the new RIC format with Iran replacing India!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

Strange strategy of seizing shadow fleet

Shadow fleet is in the news these days. The Balkan Chihuahuas trailing and threatening these vessels was at the crosshairs of the Russian navy as well the air force. Why flag carriers departing from or sailing towards St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad are being harassed?

The answer is these vessels are deemed as part of shadow fleet. What is shadow fleet? The simple answer is the ships that are not registered in the Lloyd Registry in London. Lloyds is the well-known registry of sailing ships certifying compliance of standards relating to operations, insurance, and finance of vessels. Logical next question is whether a ship can sail without being registered at Lloyds.

The answer is it is not mandatory to register any ship at the Lloyds. The only requirement is every sailing ship must be registered with any national maritime registry alternatively known as flag state. Seven of the most popular flag states are in alphabetical order, Bahamas, Cyprus, Greece, Hangdog, Liberia, Malta and Marshall Islands.

Under the maritime law no country can harass any flag carrying vessels except for reasons including but not limited to crew safety, suspected to carry contraband, engaged in narcotics trade and wanton failure on the part of the crew in conforming to maritime standards.

Recently German navy seized the Panama flagged Eventin Oil Tanker carrying Russian oil citing that the ship was not registered in the Lloyds registry and any country in the G7 group can interdict an unregistered vessel. Ostensibly, this was done in furtherance of the decision made by the G7. The vessel along with her cargo of approximately 100,000 tons of crude oil, valued at €40 million, were officially confiscated and transferred to German ownership. The fact that due to an engine failure, Eventin drifted into German coastal waters was ignored.

Russia citing that Germany has no right to interdict a sailing ship under the “ Freedom of Navigation Law” of the United Nations acted quickly by announcing that there is no such thing as shadow fleet and that the arrested ship must be freed.

In the meantime, Germany took a bad strategic decision. She  not only seized the vessel and emptied the content of oil the vessel carried but later renamed the vessel as German owned one plying under the German flag carrying description as “EVENTIN Crude Oil Tanker, IMO 9308065”  last seen in the Baltic Sea.

As far as business strategy is concerned the seizure of vessel and re-registering under new name was too bad to foot. What Germany could have done is to warn the vessel and after effecting necessary repairs pilot it to international water in Baltic Sea.

This strange strategy of seizing the so called shadow fleet vessel would linger for a long time in Russia-German relationship! 

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist