For South Korea, Quad is bridge too far

US invitation to South Korea to join Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, Quad for short, was declined by President Moon Jae-in in late May this year. It is not surprising because South Korea walks a thin line balancing relationship with US and China. Quad for South Korea is a bridge too far. Here are the gleanings:

Geoeconomics shapes South Korean decision not to be part of the group because she does not want to be pitched between two strong purveyors of influence China and North Korea on one side and the time tested quasi alliance with USA on the other. Both US & South Korea are good allies but bad partners.  See earlier blog (here).

Primarily, bilateral trade between China & South Korea is the cornerstone of their geoeconomics relationship corralling among other things blossoming trade & investment partnership. South Korea exports US$ 160 Billion to China which works out as 26% of her total exports profile. While her imports from China is around US$ 107 Billion pitching at 21% of the total import volume.  Besides, Investment flow from China to South Korea is at staggering height of US$ 562 Million in 2019 alone. Both countries are joined in the hips so much that any separation would be fatally costly.

Putting on global perspective while US-South Korea bilateral trade is just above 13.5 % of the total the regional trade with close neighbours, China, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Japan and Taiwan amounts to 49.2%. Tying up with US in Quad has twin threats to South Korea. One it will lose her sugar daddy China.

Other more damaging one is China can devastate Seoul in her export area as there is high degree of convergence of China & Korea in that sector, chiefly amongst these are techy items involving information processing and communication management. Overall Chinese influence on techno industry in South Korea is immense capital wise and flow of two-way traffic of resultant products. Samsung is the text book case here.

South Korea has already signed up with an insurance policy of keeping North Korea at bay thanks to Chinese goodwill. Paradoxically, South Korea under the protection of nuclear umbrella and also by the stationing of more than 28,000 US troops had lessened its security worries across the ocean with China and to the contiguous north with North Korea. Coincidentally neither USA nor North Korea can mount offensive against each other due to this security insurance policy.

For all purposes this scheme is working well. By joining Quad, South Korea has to throw out all the benefits she gets from the present structure of geoeconomics. So why disturb the status-quo? 

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist