Aukus, setting fox amongst sheep

ASEAN members are a dedicated group of nations who wish to live with peace and harmony, similar to sheep in pastoral grazing. Enter Aukus deal with ominous name and style with a singular purpose of setting Australian fox amongst the docile sheep.  Result: sheep are running helter skelter. 

The west has been trying to split unity among the ASEAN countries as the latter vowed to be neutral in the all-consuming conflict between the west and China. One thing that brings horror to the west is iota of neutrality. George bush II expressed this forcefully “Are you with us or against us”. ASEAN remained nonplussed. Finding the weakling was paramount need for the west. Aukus, a tripartite security deal amongst Australia, United States and UK put paid to the neutrality of ASEAN in a single blow.

Response was so divergent among the flock of sheep anyway. Indonesia took the brunt on herself, warning that AUKUS destabilizes the entire south-east Asian region expressing disassociation with the gravitas of the deal, as ushering in peace & security in the region. Malaysia went step above as her Prime Minister stated boldly AUKUS deal functions as “catalyst for a nuclear arm race in Indo Pacific region. The underpinning realization is the elephant in the room: China. Seizing upon that, Malaysia said it would seek the views of China in this matter as well.

Philippines unwittingly welcomed this at the first sigh calling it a balancing between forces in the region (meaning the China US rivalry) and reversed her stance after Indonesia & Malaysia went bellicose. Duterte was quick enough to express his concern that it could trigger “a nuclear arm race”. He also wished to consult his Cabinet in order to come up with a clear position. (Here).

Singapore took contrary view. Welcoming the deal, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is reported to have stated the AUKUS deal will “contribute constructively to the peace & stability of the region”. Incidentally Singapore is an associate member of the Five Eye Alliance of the west. What is more, Singapore by supporting AUKUS deal rubbished the South East Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone (SEANWFZ) agreed and implemented by all ASEAN members effective March 28, 1997.

So far Thailand and Vietnam the two other powers have not voiced any opinion. It can be presumed that they will go with the majority opinion as conveyed by Indonesia & Malaysia.

How Singapore was emboldened to break away from the rank: Let me give you the military expenditure of major ASEAN countries as percentage of GDP:

Indonesia 0.9

Malaysia   1.1

Philippines 1.0

Singapore 3.2

Thailand    1.5

Vietnam    2.3

Evidently, Singapore is conceited of her defence capability and punching above her weight. It will stretch your credulity if I say this: what happens if Indonesia decides to go nuclear to counter Oz. Being the largest country in ASEAN and closest to Australia, Indonesia cannot countenance a nuclear neighbour in her southern plank.

Whatever geoeconomics implications there are, Indonesia must like Pakistan be prepared to “Eat even grass to go nuclear”. She should go out pell-mell to get the mushroom button ready to defend her from the Australian fox!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist