SCO, China facing reality test

Recent virtual SCO meet became an eye opener to China and Russia that how long they could tolerate India as a member. The jibe resonating in the inner circle of China is: Iran in & India out. Should SCO be restructured to be an effective organization is the new reality test..

Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), was jointly formed by China & Russia in 2001, as political, economic, international security & defence organization with the main focus in Eurasia region reflecting the “Shanghai Spirit” that binds both these powers. Founding members are Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan & Uzbekistan in addition to Russia & China. Realizing Pakistan as the pivotal state in the Silk Road, China mooted her candidature in 2016. Russia on the other hand wished to have equidistance by recommending India as member. Consequently, both of them became full members in 2017.

Having two adversaries around the table was an unenviable task as they were bickering between themselves. This became acute after the admission of Iran as full member in 2023. In the annual meet held in New Delhi on July 5, 2023 India departing from the cardinal thread binding the SCO members  of regional security extending into  economics, pooh-poohed it and was passing innuendos against both China & Pakistan.

My take is Russia made a colossal miscalculation over India as a willing partner.  China too is guilty in nodding for the Indian membership.  The bottom line is SCO is mainly for Silk Road connectivity. The membership must be offered to only countries that are someway connected to Silk Road. Then only the geoeconomics potential of each and every country can be maximised. India does not fit to this scheme as historically she was never in the loop in Silk Road.

As a business strategist concerned with business strategy amid geoeconomics I suggest the following:

1)  All three present observer nations namely, Afghanistan, Belarus and Mongolia be admitted ASAP. Right now Belarus is placed on fast track in admission procedure

2) Both dialogue partners Armenia and Azerbaijan be admitted in due course after they burry mutual acrimony otherwise once again Pak-India type broil would be repeated  

3) True enough, Turkmenistan which proclaimed “Permanent Neutrality” in the UN in 1995, was acknowledged as neutral country and therefore cannot join Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Be that as it may, Turkmenistan be treated as special country to be extended economic benefits of SCO without being a formal member

4) The big question is what to do with Middle Eastern countries who are aspiring to be members of SCO. Historical evidence Indicates Mesopotamia and Arabian Peninsula were beneficiaries of Silk Road trade. But in that case Anatolia too must be given the same privilege. Taking into logical conclusion Turkey must be admitted as member only after she leaves NATO.

5) Procedural arrangements be made ASAP so that India could quit SCO honourably

6) In the event India refused to budge the present procedure of consensual decision making be replaced with that of majority voting.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist