In the geoeconomics chess board moves and countermoves are made to minimize one party’s loss and to maximize the opponent’s loss so that there is no incentive for the max loser to continue in the game. Abraham Accord is one such game. Details follow:
Briefly “Abraham Accord” consists of multiple treaties sponsored by Trump Administration during August-December 2020 in order to normalize relationship between Israel and five Arab countries namely Bahrain, Morocco, Sudan, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. At the last moment Saudi Arabia opted out.
The seed for Abraham Accord was planted in 2015 when Israel opened diplomatic office in Dubai. The expectations include among others diversifying economic opportunities for both countries provided that Israel desists from expanding settler colonies in the West Bank.
Trump barged in and through his son-in-law Jared Kushner negotiated the finer prints of the accord so that an economic cum political union could be formed within the Mid-East and in the outlying North Africa. Initial euphoria apart apprehension came from expected quarters from Palatine leaders and the hesitation from the Saudi royal family unexpectedly.
Reading between lines KSA understood that this Accord has very little to with enhancing Arab geoeconomics clout but to make a wedge between the Arab League and Iran. The fact that promoting enmity between these two parties was the real objective behind it was self-evident to Saudi leaders. In the meantime, there emerged another opponent to the Accord. Perhaps you would identify it as Iran? No!
It was not Iran but the far flung China which read the tea leaves well and was priming for checkmating Abraham Accord. Years passed without any visible countermoves by China. Silently and stealthily China was talking to the non-Israeli participants of the Accord and KSA which was not a party at all. Patient efforts made by China in explaining to the Arabs the real objective of America in pitting them against Iran, ultimately started to bear fruits.
China knew that only KSA can do the right thing to make the Accord nullified as far as the Mid-East arena is concerned. North African countries like Morocco and Sudan matters little in the oil-flow from the Person Gulf!
On March 2023 both Saudi Arabia and Iran announced the normalization of ties between them brokered by China. A trilateral statement gave the gist of the Entente:
1. Resume diplomatic relations between them resulting in the opening of embassies in Riyadh & Tehran
2 Vouch to respect sovereignty and non-interference in internal affairs of between them
3. Agreed to implement bilateral agreement named “General Agreement for Cooperation in the fields of Economy, Trade, Investment, Technology, Science, Culture, Sports, and Youth” signed by both parties in 1998
4. Consented to implement “Security Cooperation Agreement” signed by both countries in 2001.
In a master stroke China rendered Abraham Accord a damn squib. Weaning away KSA the leading power in terms of Geoeconomics from the Western Persian Gulf and uniting her with Iran that remains in similar status in the Eastern Persian Gulf facilitated it.
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff Rajulu
Business Strategist
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Business Strategist
No comments:
Post a Comment