It is a pipe dream to assume breaking any type of peace be it temporary or time-barred or permanent in the Ukraine theatre via negotiation between the co-belligerents directly or using an intermediary. So why America and Russia are in parley on this issue. My thoughts based on business strategy & geoeconomics:
At the outset, it must be made clear that negotiation
is useful as a means to delay outbreak of hostilities. Once hostilities begin
the chance of pulling back is almost zero. The natural war to end a war occurs
where co-belligerents were totally annihilated and there is no purpose,
continuing the fighting.
In most cases peace can break out when a co-belligerent is defeated
convincingly and the victorious one sets the surrender terms for the fallen
one to save face, secure some concessions and then continue as a vassal state
to the winning nation. Let me emphasize that a weak belligerent has no chance
absolutely to begin negotiation for peace. If the co-belligerent does not want
to surrender then it is the Latin dictum “vae victis meaning woe to the
conquered” comes into play and he be damned forever!
Russia, which is so far winning the battle has to take into cognition the following:
1. How she is going to live with fellow Slavs of Ukraine. Living with an enemy is easy but not with a Frenemy in the form of defeated Slavs of Ukraine.
2. Russia gets somewhat of a “White Man’s Burden” in the sense that Ukraine was once part of the Soviet Union and the Ukrainians have immensely contributed the success of USSR during the cold War. Put it on the other way, Russia is forced to play the role of custodian.
3. The Russo-Ukro war has brought to Russia big boon in the form of geoeconomics power. Once dismissed as “gas station” she emerged as a geoeconomics power to be not only in energy sector, but food & agriculture, military hardware, rare earth and critical minerals not to forget the thriving trade of enriched uranium.
4. Re-building Ukraine would be a shared responsibility between Russia and the West headed by America which instigated the war that ravaged Ukraine and brought her to this tragic situation.
5. If the past is any guide, Russia would find herself in the same situation as she was at the end of WWII: up building both Russia & Ukraine as sister nations. By no means can she allow Ukraine to remain in limbo.
6. A combined business strategy, is therefore, entails a win –win situation for both erstwhile belligerents. How this would proceed is a Billion Dollar question. To my mind it is Trump who can be the godfather. The series of meeting taking place between Putin and Steve Witkoff indicate that Trumps is on board for this combined business strategy.
7. Finally it is the lasting peace that can break
out between Russia and America that settles the Ukraine issue once and for all.
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff Rajulu
Business Strategist
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Business Strategist
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