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Friday, 4 July 2025

Primakov RIC format strategy being reformatted

When a carriage train from far away region of Zhejiang province in China arrived in Tehran in February 2025 traversing more than 8,400 km lasting 14 days of journey it not only created history but heralded the dawn of new RIC format that could bring tectonic shifts in geoeconomics. Read for more:

Yevgeny Primakov, a seasoned diplomat & strategist who served as PM for Russia during 1998-99 was instrumental in introducing a strategic framework covering Russia, India and China in a trilateral format, famously known as Primakov RIC with the aim of establishing peace, security and strategic relationship among the three participants. Unwittingly, he opened up new vista presently known as multi polar world.

Sometimes dubbed as RIC Troika, this framework began during his pendency as PM Russia. Surprisingly this led to peace & prosperity not to mention the avoidance of skirmishes between India & China. Geoeconomics was the key driving force as commerce & trade started to blossom within the troika and specially between the eternal foes India & China.

As expected the border skirmish, which is to be avoided at any cost indeed happened in 2020 in Galwan Valley that put a temporary halt to the RIC Troika talkathons. Many other things happened in the meantime. India was quietly moving away from the troika by joining US brainchild of Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, commonly known as Quad incorporating USA, Australia, Japan & India. Quintessentially, RIC was buried in the Himalayan Salt. Both Russia and China saw this as an attempt to put a spoke on the wheel of RIC Format.

Meanwhile, Iran was warming up towards both Russia & China. She joined the BRI beginning 2016. In June 2020, China–Iran economic partnership was initialled which obliges China to invest more than USD 400 billion during the course of 25 years. Encouraged by this, Iran signed Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with Russia in January 2025.

Back to China-Iran Railway. This marvel was constructed by Chinese as well as Iranian engineers over a period of several years. From Urumqi the 8,400 km (6,460 mile) track runs through four intermediary countries connecting Almaty in Kazakhstan, Bishkek in Kirgizstan, Tashkent & Samarkand in Uzbekistan together with Ashgabat in Turkmenistan finally arriving at Tehran in Iran. The journey lasts 14 days compared to marine passage that takes more than 28 to 32 days. As this project is established under BRI the responsibility to protect it is vested with Chinese Armed Forces.

To the chagrin of India and to the lesser extent to Russia, China unabashedly has promoted Iran as the middle “I” in the new RIC Format. Yevgeny Primakov might be turning in his graves. His dream of Russia India China partnership, has failed the litmus test.

China understands that Iran is rising. So too her geoeconomics clout. India on the other hand is confused as regards to her priorities. The crux of the matter is China sees Iran as friend and ally whereas India is conceived maximum a frenemy. So the dawn of the new RIC format with Iran replacing India!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

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