Recently President Erdogan in seemingly innocuous statement made a strident point though. “Turkey would enter a new era in 2023 shaping the future of the entire region”. This made heads of most capitals in the East and West to deeply concerned, because Erdogan does not mince words. He means what he says:
The Lausanne Agreement comes to an end on August 5, 2023. And the restrictions placed on her as successor state of Ottoman Empire evaporate. Three of the restrictions are noted here:
1. Turkey is barred from exploration of oil within her territory
2. Bosphorus strait is an international water way
3. Turkey cedes all her territorial possessions that are rich in hydro carbon including Libya, Iraq and Syria along with Cyprus which has underwater reserves of natural gas.
Leave the last restriction of reclaiming the nation states as her own, the first two restrictions being removed means Turkey can explore hydro garden on land and in the exclusive economic zone in Aegean Sea, Black Sea and in the Eastern Mediterranean. She also has the right of levying tariff for vessels passing through Bosphorus strait which by then ceases to be an international waterway.
Geoeconomics potential of Turkey in 2023 is staggering. Today Turkey uses almost a billion barrels oil per day, most of it imported. Known hydro carbon apart Turkey has found one of the largest reserve of natural gas in Black Sea in her economic zone. Moreover, drilling over land in the Eastern Anatolia would surely yield positive results especially in border areas with Syria and Iraq. In addition to saving of oil imports the domestic oil production would augment the cash reserves immensely.
Bosphorus Strait is a real boon for Turkey. About 41,000 ships passed through the passage in 2019 carrying more than 640 million gross tons of cargo. Russia alone sends 3 billion barrels of oil daily through her tankers. A reasonable fee on the basis of tonnage in the case of cargo vessels and a flat tariff over military vessels could amount to billions of dollar. Plainly put, this alone is enough to maintain the strait in good order and improve infra-structure on the banks of strait even if Turkey allows free passage for passenger ships magnanimously.
The bottom line is that using the right combination of business strategy Turkey could transform her as one of the top power in geoeconomics. The World GDP ranking is a key measure to calculate geoeconomics clout.
Currently occupies 19th position in the world Nominal GDP ranking with 761.43 billion US$ Turkey. Interestingly, the PPP adjusted amount of GDP in 2019 was 2.35 Trillion US$ giving her 11th position in the World ranking. By all means both the nominal and PPP adjusted GDP ranks are expected to place Turkey within the top ten GDP countries globally.
Cheers!
Muthu
Ashraff Rajulu
Business Strategist
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Business Strategist
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