When you threaten someone you should be able to go through it otherwise you will lose your credibility. This is a basic axiom in international relations. When Nigeria as the chair of ECOWAS gave an ultimatum to Niger to reinstate ousted president within a week she failed to realize whether she has the ability to follow through:
It all began on July 26, 2023 when General Abdourahmane Tchiani led a successful coup to oust incumbent president Bazau who was voted to office as the first democratically elected president of Niger in 2021. Niger along with 14 other countries are members of the group Economic Community West African States known by the acronym ECOWAS.
Although this is purely an economic grouping it also has military muscle in the form of ECOMOG. Military invention is not a new thing for this group. Beginning in Liberia in 1990 ECOMOG has seen action in five countries namely Sierra Leone, Guinea, Bissau Cote d lvoire Mail and the Gambia. Liberia is noted in the sense ECOMOG went in there for the second time in 2003.
But Niger is a different kettle of fish. She had geoeconomics power. A country of 26 million its porous border with Nigeria runs about 1,000 miles. The border area between the two countries see the vast entrenchment of Hausas who number 70 million. Nearly 50 million live in Nigeria alone. Supplemented with Fulani tribe whose majority has embraced the Hausa culture it is the predominant force. The Hausas have spread their tentacles to northern parts of Cameroon, Ghana, Benin, Togo and the southern Chad. As the economic power house they dictate terms even to the leaders of these countries.
Bola Tinubu, the current president of Nigeria belongs to Yoruba tribe of south Nigeria. When the military ultimatum was issued the Hausa rallied around the Niger Coup leader General Abdourahmane Tchiani. Dominoes started to fall in the wake of Hausa uprising. The Senate of Nigeria voted against sending military to Niger. Northern Border States of Nigeria including Kaduna, Kano & Kwara issued statements critical of Bola Tinubu.
In addition to the coup leaders getting more popular within Niger and Nigeria they were supported enthusiastically by leaders of Guinea, Mail and Burkina Faso whose young and fiery leader Ibrahim Traore carried the day through with Niger. Their military delegations arrived in Niamey, capital of Niger for tumultuous welcome whereas Nigerian peace delegation was ignored ignominiously on their arrival at Niamey Airport.
The ultimatum was damp squib. It passed eventless on Sunday 6 August 2023. The threats of cutting electricity by Nigeria to Niger suffered the similar fate as
Niger closed two of the Hydroelectricity plants located in south Niger causing blackouts in northern Nigeria.
Taking to the edge Niger then delivered the body blow to Bola Tinubu. The trans Sahara Gas pipeline with a total of 2,565 mile length beginning from Warri, Nigeria, and ending in Hassi R'Mel, Algeria, has to run the course of 523 miles through Niger. A red notice was given stopping the pipeline.
The bottom line is geoeconomics. Niger has all the keys to make Nigeria suffer more than it damages Niger. A peaceful resolution must be found forthwith. For that to happen the ultimatum must be withdrawn. Leaders of ECOWAS are falling one over another calling for such a settlement.
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff Rajulu
Business Strategist
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Business Strategist
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