Beyond the optics of the US-Ukraine high-level talks held on January 11 2025 in Riyadh, is shimmering for the world that wondered why at all it was held in Riyadh rather than in Doha, Qatar, which is the usual venue for this type of parleying. Here is my geoeconomics analysis:
Stung by the earlier defeat of the Gulf Council’s
blockade on Qatar which lasting for 3.5 years during June 5, 2017 till January
6 2021, handing a grand victory to tiny Qatar. The bitter lesson learned by Saudi Arabia is that the
size does not matter but the will of using geoeconomics clout is. The main
reason Qatar stood strong is the support given by Iran & Turkey and the
nonchalant attitude exhibited by America.
In terms of size KSA is a giant compared to the dwarf
that is Qatar. Qatari native population is about 2.7 million while Saudis have 33.3
Million. Area of Qatar is about 11,610 km2, whereas KSA controls
over 2.15 million km2. Now look at the geoeconomics part. Qatar has
a GDP of US$ 213 Billion in 2023. KSA boasts 1.07 US$ Trillion for the same
year. However Per Capita Income
wise Qatar leads with US$ 79,430 while KSA follows distantly with US$ 31,860.
Oil revenue accounts for 60% GDP and 55% of government revenue for KSA while Qatar’s
gas revenue accounts for 60% of GDP and 70% of national revenue of that state.
That being said, Qatar has used her financial
muscle in playing masterful role in global diplomacy and geoeconomics power
play. So many meets take place in Doha, where Qataris act as mediators, facilitators
and hosts of international forums. Examples include Taliban-USA negotiation, Israel-Hamas talks and
talkathons addressing Syria and Libya relief matters. The cap on the Qatari
crown is the World Cup Football Tournament of 2022, which was indeed a landmark
event for this tiny nation.
Al-Saud family hitherto had been a silent player
not going for publicity and not getting involved in controversies. Prince Salman is altering this
equilibrium. OPEC+ was solely his creation whereby he gave pride and prominence
to Russia bringing her on-board. Thereafter all production & pricing formulas
were finalized as between KSA & Russia.
Fearing that she be left out in shaping new geoeconomics policies, a more proactive leadership is now under works. BRICS invitation is something Prince Salman is still toying about. He has already made up his mind as regards to joining it anyway, one day.
That day depends on how USA is going to play ball with Prince Salman. Recent Arab League Meeting held in Cairo regarding re-construction of Gaza is in essence an ultimatum to US-Israel duo. Unless America is willing to accommodate Arab’s concerns in Palatine, Prince Salman would change his policy over Global South by being more active not only in the arena of BRICS but opting for more closer and productive relationship with the Eurasian countries.
The bottom line is US-Ukraine meet in Riyadh is a clear message to the Global North that KSA is entering into the fray of geoeconomics battle field this time not on the side of USA!
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff Rajulu
Business Strategist
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Business Strategist
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