Why Iran must go nuclear?

Interestingly, two news items that appeared in the wire recently give us afterthoughts about why Iran should go nuclear ASAP. One came from North Korea. As you guessed right, the other from Iran itself. Nuke is not just a weapon, it involves ‘navigating strategy amid geoeconomics ’.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is blunt as always he is, “We will never hand over our nuclear weapons. The world already knows very well what the United States does after it makes a country give up its nuclear weapons”. He is right what happened to Muammar Gadhafi after he gave up nuke is well known.

On the contrary, there is marked reluctance for Iranian nukes mainly in the European theatre and astounding opposition emanating from the declared nuke powers such as USA, France & UK. Russian & Chinese response to nuke proliferation is subtle & nuanced.

But the bad guy in the nuke saga remains Iran whereas Israel which is supposed to possess several warheads fitted nuclear arsenals hides behind strategic ambiguity. Recently about 70 members of Iranian Parliament sent an appeal to Iran’s Security Council and concerned officials calling for a review of Iran’s defence doctrine as regards to nukes.

They argued that building & stockpiling nukes as deterrence is altogether different from the original fatwa reported to have been given by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran in mid-1990s and first reported as announcement occurring in October 2003. They argued that the original fatwa bans production and use of nuclear weapons ostensibly for offensive purposes. The recent attack by both Israel & USA on Iranian nuclear installations which were under the oversight of the IAEA had changed the parameter from offensive to defensive. Hence building & stockpiling nukes as a deterrent must be pursued.

Offence or defence, there is increasing pressure on Iran from her global partners that the matter regarding her nuclear issue must be put to rest due mainly to the eroding of  geoeconomics clout Iran hitherto had. As a transportation corridor Iran remains one of the critical country. Chinese got this calculus right and they built the China-Iran railway which is now operational and has lessened the oil traffic from Persian Gulf to Chines ports.

Russia is a major participant of International North–South Transport Corridor (INSTC) a 7,200-km long multi-mode network of ship, rail, and road route meant for moving freight between Azerbaijan, Central Asia, Europe, India, Iran, and Russia. Moreover, Iran and Russia signed an agreement on 18 February 2025, focusing on completion of the rail segment of the corridor connecting St Petersburg to India via Iran's Chabahar port.

The risk of being declared as a ‘rogue state’ a rubric often attached to North Korea is still out there. In the case of North Korea it is isolated with transportation available only with Russia & China. Iran cannot be dismissed like that. She is a civilizational state with proven assets both in crude & natural gas.

Hesitancy is not the wall mark of the Ancient Persian Empire; it surfaced only after the Islamic Revolution of 1979. Now it is time for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Supreme Leader of Iran to make a bold decision in strategy lest he walks away from the geoeconomics boon!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

H1B decree, Trump hits India where it hurts

As you know business manoeuvre is made by states and firms after studying the expected effects and whether this fits into the overall business strategy. Trump recently showcased his art & craft of deal making when he decided to hit India where it hurts more. Jacking up fee for H1B Visa is one such move. Details follow:

The obvious target is the Indian IT professionals who man most techno firms in USA. Simply stated the Executive Order signed on Friday 26 September imposes a visa fee of USD 100,000 per person who enters USA after this date under the H1B visa protocol. Those who already live within USA under this system have to pay annually similar amount.

Among the many US companies, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Google have the largest Indian employees under this protocol. In 2025 alone approximately 5,000 such visas were issued. Nearly 70% of the H1B visas are issued to Indian nationals. The scheme works this way: Indian techno firms such as Infosys, Tata Consulting, Wipro and Tech Mahindra recruit professionals within India, train them and later place them with US Firms.  

Trump wants to finish off H1B visa system not because immigrants are crowding the US workplace or for that matter American techies are un-employed in the home turf at the rate of 5 to 7.5%. For him it is the RIC format of Russia, India and China challenging US dominance is the core concern. In his grand scheme of things he envisages the following:

a) Demolish the Indian dream of working in America replacing US talent pool because Indians are satisfied with half of the earnings average American techy gets.

b) Out of foreign remittance received by India, nearly 30% originates from America.

c) Trump cannot take China head on, besides Chinese trail at around 11% of the expatriate employed under H1B protocol, in comparison to the Lion share held by India.

d) Russia is not in the game at all as none from that country work in USA under this visa regime.

e) Trump has to settle his score with India who despite his repeated demands, or call it pleas, is not ready and willing to stop buying Russian cheap oil.

Right now the score is 1-nil. My strategic analysis is Trump H1B tactical business manoeuvre is just the beginning whose blow, however, is badly felt. How India would respond, we have to wait and see!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

 

Saudi Pak mutual defence treaty: A geoeconomics review

Leaving political and military analysis to the professionals in the respective fields let me look at how this mutual defence treaty would influence geoeconomics in the respective nations and beyond:

First and foremost, Saudis have an assured supply of military hardware & software from a diversified source, no longer tied to the American military establishment. Pakistan uses some of the top tier weapons sourced from China and part of it is jointly produced within Pak. Ostensibly, Pakistan has already moved out from US as major supplier of weaponry to the tight embrace of China. Now Saudis can also follow suit by getting out from American tentacles into the Pak-China duo seamlessly. In nutshell, geoeconomics of both Pak & China gets a major boost.

Secondly, China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is now planned to be extended to Afghanistan on the North and Iran to the West would be easily connected to the Persian Gulf and thence to the Red Sea. CPEC therefore is destined to become a major trade route next to the Arctic passage for the global trade.

A dedicated oil supply route comes into being, in the offing as the sea-land corridor between oil producing countries in the Middle East is directly connected to Eastern shore of China alleviating nagging fears of what Chinese leader Hu Jintao lent expression to as “Malacca dilemma" in 2003. Ever since Presidents of China have been working on mitigation if not total eradication of this dilemma.

Before long almost all the countries in the Middle-East would be covered either in the BRI or CPEC or both achieving remarkable synergies in the trade & transportation areas by way of road, rail and sea connectivity.

While the winners are Middle-East, South Asia including India and Far Eastern countries including China, Vietnam, North Korea etc., the losers would be mainly America, the West and Israel in geoeconomics, explicitly in terms of losses in revenue and potential for wealth accumulation.

Future of petro dollar is hanging by a thread. This system came about in early 1970s when USA assured military protection to KSA in exchange of Saudis billing oil sales in US Dollars. The current mutual treaty rubbishes this as KSA would move out from US military umbrella to Pakistan nuclear umbrella. In geoeconomics, the phasing out of petro dollar is going to be a major blow to the overall dollar domination globally.

Pak gets two type of boons: one is related to her energy profile as she needs to import so much of oil and Saudis would take care of Pak energy security. Second boon is the debtor-creditor relationship. As you are aware Pakistan is a debtor nation with close upon USD 60 Billion to be serviced. In contrast, Saudi is a creditor nation having more than USD 925 Billion of assets under management. In point of fact a match made in heaven!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist