Nepal Gen Z riots, what is lying beneath?

Last few days saw massive riots taking place in Kathmandu under “Gen Z” that ravaged the economy together with the current administration. Seemingly there is dissatisfaction felt across the strands of society culminating in civic chaos. Politics aside there are notable geoeconomics reasons that fuel this social upheaval:

Internal dimension is what interested many analysts to look at the domestic economic performance. But the external dimension that was really behind this disturbance was glossed over. Nepal has been a poor land–locked country often at the mercy of her southern neighbour India. To extricate from the elephant’s horn Nepali leaders have been in touch with her neighbours.

Neither Pakistan nor Bhutan could be of any help. The former does not have a land border and the latter keeps the border under tight control to avoid Nepali workers creeping into the kingdom. But China is a different story.

Connectivity was sought and action taken to build major China-Nepal Highway, a 800 kilometre road running over the slopes of Himalaya. Since 2023 Kathmandu was connected to the border point via two major crossings, amongst the six located on the Nepal-China border that extends to about 1415 km.

Ostensibly this deprives India her hegemonic role within Nepal as trade starts blossoming between China and Nepal in leaps and bounds. Yet there is wide spread dissatisfaction amongst the ruling elites who basically plunder the Nepalis using their Indian connection.

Their grouse was expressed differently in terms of unfavourable trade balance between Nepal & China where Nepal’s imports from China is around USD 2.05 Billion while Nepal exports to China was a mere USD 18 million. Critics also cite that India is a better trading partner as Indian exports to Nepal estimated to be USD 7.25 Billion while Nepal could pinch a salutary USD 811 Million exports to India.

Weaning away Nepal from China has emerged a vital agenda for the Nepali elites who see their future sealed with Hindutva led India rather than Communist led China.

Unknowingly to the Nepalis, the Americans got wind of the findings of Uranium in the Nepali mountains.  A geological study confirmed the presence of a uranium mine in the Upper Mustang region in 2016 without ascertaining the quantum. Incidentally this type of Uranium could be used for turning out nuclear weapons. Chinese are also smart. They have already traced the approximate quantum and the method of mining it.

This geoeconomics boon to the poor nation of Nepal could be devastating, so to speak. America, China and India are jostling for power in Kathmandu. National Endowment for Democracy (NED) a US Think Tank is already active in Kathmandu and their first attempt has just succeeded in deposing the present government.

How China and India would play their part is a Billion Dollar question in navigating strategy amid geoeconomics?

 

Cheers! 

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist