Within few weeks, Taliban would over run Kabul administration and poised to form an inclusive government led by itself. From a rack stack militant movement to become chief ruler of Afghanistan in itself is a great achievement. But what matters more is Taliban transformation is going to make Afghanistan a geoeconomics hub and China as major player within the country. In sum, it is eastward China ho!
Out of the six countries bordering Afghanistan, China remains the one that has no fraught relationship. Even Pakistan blow hot or cold at times. Four others Iran, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan have unsolved issues regarding borders, acceptance or breaching of it and movement of men & material across borders. Taliban has no border issue to settle with China. When Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Leader of Taliban met with Wang Yi state Councillor recently, the body language alone conveys the camaraderie between them.
Taliban likes China because it does not interfere directly or indirectly with Afghan affairs. Understanding the Afghan culture & traditions, China played safe for the last several years. Being neutral China never sided with one party against the other. More than anything else, Uighur issue does not wash with Taliban. Declaring China as friendly country Taliban made an open invitation to China to participate in the post-war reconstruction & development. What is more Taliban confirmed that it would honour all the commitments made re mining rights which China sought in earnest beginning 2011.
For China, Talban presents an honest business partner with whom China can do business. Besides Taliban is able to provide security to Chinese nationals when posted there. Areas of special interests are mining minerals including rare earths, along with prospecting for gas deposit in the north especially in area bordering Turkmenistan, where China – Turkmenistan gas pipe is being laid.
Undoubtedly, mineral sourcing is on the top of the agenda. Here lies the paradox. After two decades of war USA was unable to locate any of the minerals let alone extract these. China has twin ability of finding minerals & refining these. A good illustration is how USA with plenty of rare earths found in California & Texas export the rocks & sand to China for crushing, milling and refining as useful elements then import these from China.
Afghanistan is sitting on the largest mineral treasure trove over the earth’s crust. In near term say, within a decade extraction of minerals would easily surpass US$ one Trillion. The five major materials, namely, iron, copper, niobium, cobalt and gold is estimated to have on site value of US$ 550 Billion. On the second tier molybdenum, rare earths, asbestos, silver, potassium & aluminium could easily fetch around US$ 300 Billion. Minerals like graphite, zinc and mercury could be around US$ 200 billion. Large deposits of lithium found are yet to be valued.
Remaining in the outlier observing the Russian and American invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 & 2001 respectively, and supporting neither in the course of past tumultuous four decades, China decided to establish lines of communication with Afghan factions only in 2020. Aftermath of American withdrawal China is talking to both Taliban & Kabul admin. As the newcomer unscathed so far, and to great extent unblemished China stands as the best candidate to partner with incoming Taliban led government in pursuing geoeconomics goals of both Afghanistan and China.
Cheers!
Muthu
Ashraff Rajulu
Business Strategist
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Business Strategist
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