It is the paradox of being credible. China instead of worrying about possible takeover of Afghanistan byTaliban, is in back room negotiations with the militants to do business. As a diplomatic coup, this ranks the best hat trick for China. It is going to be geoeconomics as usual. Her expectations have been conveyed to Taliban, the shocker is the militants are okay with them. Read more…
American invasion of Afghan opened the eyes of China. It was the first time China felt threatened from her western neighbour, not because the Afghans are agonistic towards China but invaders are. So China began to make her own moves. Meantime, the underlying duality aspect of international relations of China cannot be more emphasised than in the case of Afghan conundrum. One relates to the security and other geoeconomics.
Muslim militancy seeping through the Wakhan corridor threatening stability in Xinxiang that already has dissension by Uighur minority is an existential threat. As a tail of Afghan towards China, Wakhan corridor a thin piece of real estate wedged between Pakistan in south and Tajikistan in north has been a hotbed of militant activities. It also functions as wall obstructing access to Central Asia by Pak.
Taliban is the only non-state institution that provides the safety margin so far. On ascending to the power centre Taliban would be able to provide security of the corridor as well as safety to Chinese personnel employed throughout Afghan. Yet, the geoeconomics prospects are mouth-watering to the Chinese. Taliban over the last four decades have developed finesse in running business, acting as intermediaries and ensuring the deal negotiated go through without hindrance from any quarters within or without.
Zarghona Totakhail of Kabul Education University states, “China has become the biggest source of foreign direct investment in Afghanistan especially after Afghanistan’s energy minerals and raw materials sector opened up in 2007. Reopening its economic ties, China has diversified its investment in copper extraction, oil and natural gas to road and rail infrastructure projects”. (Here).
In fact so far direct investment by China in Afghan has already exceeded US$ half billion mark, appointing herself as the biggest foreign investor in Afghan. The goodies are all low hanging fruits for Taliban now.
For example, Aynak Copper Mine has had the potential to give up to an annual royalty of $400 million to Afghanistan. China could not exploit the potential due to the oversight of Americans in this region as well as prevailing political instability.
Secondly, the state owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) is planning to build parallel gas pipeline to its Turkmenistan-China line which any case passes through Tajikistan and could be connected to China in a fork: one through Tajikistan proper and other cutting across Wakhan corridor in North-East of Afghanistan. In addition a new project known as TACT (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan and China) is underlined as a viable alternative to the Central Asia-China (CAC) pipeline that presently transits through Uzbekistan & Kazakhstan.
In addition to natural gas China is to rope in Tajikistan and Afghan in extracting Amur Darya oil. Already China is operating The Amu Darya Oil Project containing five oil fields that were operated by a CNPC-led JV between 2011 and 2018. It includes the Lashkar and Bazarkhami oil fields. According to oil experts oil extraction in the Amu Darya basin was contracted to CNPC and an Afghan oil company, Watan Oil and Gas, back in the fall of 2012. (Here). It was halted due to disagreements between parties. China intends to pursue this matter with incoming Talban administration to improve geoeconomics for both!
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff Rajulu
Business Strategist
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Business Strategist
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