Lack of manpower dogs Ukraine

Mathematically speaking, ideal manpower ratio in war is 2.5 to 1 where the probability of winning goes to the higher integer holder. When war started Russia had about 90,000 soldiers thrown in against more than 200,000 of heavily armed Ukraine soldiers. But it is Ukraine that runs out of her soldiers. Why? 

On strategy analysis I gleaned the following: 

1.  The element of surprise was on the Russian side. Ukr thought Russians are all talk and no action.

2. Russians opted for initial blitzkrieg in spreading the war theatre from Kiev cauldron to Mariupol. Later they adjusted by making tactical withdrawal from largely populated centres like Kiev and cities close to border with Belarus. Russians followed this strategy of surrounding an area and then vanishing overnight. Their manpower losses in the initial phase was more than what they could bear. Therefore moving from less active war zone to vital areas where Ukr is thinly spread was resorted to with speed and for lasting gains.

3. Moving soldiers from one theatre to another in orderly manner but keeping some kind of rear guard forced Ukr to move legions to these areas to proclaim victory. By doing so they were stuck as the real action has passed elsewhere. Ukr concentrated her manpower in these areas where very little fighting is on the board. In the course of time Russians bombarded or struck with missiles these areas killing more Ukr soldiers as they were sitting ducks.

4. Donbass saw heavily armed and well trained Ukr soldiers numbering close upon 100,000 who do not engage with Russian fighters but fire artillery salvos to residential areas. Neither they can make tactical withdrawal lest they lose control over Donbass region nor they can move towards frontline manned by Russian artillery.

5. Attrition was damning to Ukr. Each day saw on average 450 soldiers put out of action being killed, wounded or missing in action. For the past 90 days total manpower losses is estimated as 25,000 which is about one eighth of the active armed personnel.

6. More sponging of manpower was done not due to manning counter attack or offensive but for in-situ training that took large slice of active soldiers away from frontline. Approximately 30,000 soldiers are following one or other intense training course in handling modern western weapons. To Ukr soldiers these are toys that they cannot come to terms with ease unlike the Soviet era weapons.

7. A campaign to recruit one million soldiers initiated recently appears to be still on the design table as youth are more interested to emigrate. Incidentally more than 5 million refugees have moved out to western countries so far.

8. Finally, Ukr is toying with the idea of getting mercenaries or volunteers. But there again problems of assimilation to terrain, open space warfare, linguistic and cultural characteristics dampen the spirit. Contracting out is the only option. But who will foot the bill?

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail:   cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist