What happens the day after?

This is a question popping up in the minds of all those who are engaged in strategy work and in the geoeconomics field.  You plan meticulously and implement the plan to the letter, yet the strategy that bound it in the original form appeared to have had major fault lines.

Recent examples show that what matters is how the day after would be playing out. A quickie is the fallout of Israeli war against Gazans. Unexpectedly, the Yemen intervened by blocking ships going to and fro Israeli port of Eilat.  Not only that any and every ship that is registered in Israel was also banned to traverse Red Sea.

The choking point was Bab al Mandeb Strait that opens up Red Sea into the wider Indian Ocean. The Yemeni port of Hodeida is strategically located to administer this blockade. Armed with advanced drones and short range missiles Yemen practically stopped navigation of most if not all ships connected to  Israel one way or another.

Overnight Yemen became a hot potato that was too difficult to get rid of. America led west cited freedom of navigation as sine qua non and asked Yemen to stop forthwith her blockade. What irritated them most is the requirement by Yemenis that all ships must keep their transponders on and broadcast a simple message that the vessels are not connected with Israel or carrying any cargo to and from that country.

The brouhaha of maritime coalition by America with ten countries on board fizzled out leaving both USA & UK to initiate bombing campaign on Yemen. Although not similar in the scale & scope of Shock & Awe operation in Iraq decades ago the punch delivered to Yemen was of substantial nature. Yet the end result was destruction of the periphery and not the depth of military structure.

The Houthis who spearheaded this blockade had laid only one condition for them to call off this blockade. Israel must stop its bombing campaign over Gaza and allow humanitarian supply reaching the besieged area. But the west misread the script. It is not a geopolitical play book but what Houthis intended to show was a simple logic, that the narrow Strait of Bab-al- Mandeb is a vital geoeconomics tool Yemen possesses and any force that trying to mess up with it would get severe beating.

Disregarding what happens the day after America & her partners catapulted tiny Yemen as a strong military power, a David against the Goliath. Consequently the container transport crossing Suez Canal and ships plying to and from Port of Eilat has dwindled to zero.

A strategic failure and equally distressing geoeconomics collapse is knocking on the doors of West & Israel. If either Russia or China or both intervene then America has got to retreat dishonourably. The loss of prestige alone is a real blow to the West, where it hurts the geoeconomics tool kit of Lloyds Insurance let alone the fugazi of the vaunted “freedom of navigation”.

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist