In the annals of strategy master moves are somewhat rare but not uncommon. Recent such incident was Putin visiting North Korea after decades or so. This master move rattled the West mostly because it did not expect this surprise. My strategic analysis follows from the angle of strategy towards geoeconomics:
Firstly it is strategy of ‘correlation of forces’ as coached by Lenin. This is an amended form of ‘correlation coefficient’ which is a numerical measure explaining linear relationship between two variables. In practise, the Soviet looked at choosing partners on the basis of correlation of forces where detailed analysis of capacity, production and manpower is done along with the idea of proximity to Russia proper. For example, Ukraine was absorbed for her coal & gas reserves.
Same thing is now being applied in the case of
North Korea, which has advanced system in turning out artillery and associated shells.
According to estimates 3
million rounds of 152 mm artillery shells and/or more than 500,000 rounds of
122 mm multiple rocket launchers had already been shipped into Russian
armoury. The visit by Putin upgrades the relationship where the possibility of
even North Korean soldiers manning rear position of the Russian forces in
Ukraine is braced upon
On the fillip side Putin wants South Korea to be
unmasked. Being the 9th largest arms supplier South Korea was
exporting armoury & weapons to third parties such as America and Poland to
be used in Ukraine theatre. As consequence to this agreement signed between
Russia & North Korea providing mutual help, South Korea has to come out
publicly that she provides needed weapons by Ukraine directly, making her as
co-belligerent against Russia.
Apart from military there is something to do with business strategy. Russia has huge grains production part of it rot within Russia itself due to the sanctions imposed upon her by the West. This portion, very large indeed, could be easily supplied to North Korea across the border to feed 26 million Koreans most them are starving due to lack of sufficient grains.
Ground under North Korea has started shaking in
terms of geoeconomics. Pitted against her southern hostile partner North Korea under
the weight of US & UN sanctions cannot import essentials in order to sustain
& develop the country. Putin
rubbished the sanctions regime and in fact called for the removal of it wholesale.
Before long China world barge in. Iran which is still an outlier due to the
sanctions biting her also would find North Korea as useful partner and would be
able to legitimise her existing clandestine partnership in acquiring military
hardware & know –how from North Korea.
More than anything, this master move by Putin is plus–plus one for Russia as well as the Global South. In addition to ‘food for weapon’, North Korea gets a god sent window of getting out of her isolation. That itself is a great shake-up for her geoeconomics!
Cheers!
Muthu Ashraff Rajulu
Business Strategist
Mobile: + 94 777 265677
E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com
Blog: Business Strategist
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