Russian peace offer, time to be realistic

In geoeconomics, zero-sum game has no place. It is time the America led West think in terms of reality facing both parties Russia and the West in Ukraine imbroglio. Let me give a strategic analysis of Putin’s peace offer:

Russian proposal

Russia will immediately cease fire and declare its readiness for negotiations after Ukraine withdraws troops from the territory of the Russian regions (Novorossiya) namely Lugansk, Donets, Zaporizzhia and Kherson

In order for negotiations to commence there will need to be a statement from Kiev abandoning its intentions to join NATO

Russia also seeks a neutral, non-aligned, nuclear-free status for Ukraine, including de-militarisation and de-nazification

Russian aim is not for a frozen conflict but for ending it completely

Implications if the terms are rejected

Although Putin did not say explicitly what would happen if Ukraine fails to accede to his terms it is generally implied that more territory would be taken including Sumy & Kharkov In the north, Dnipropetrovsk in the central and Odessa & Nikolayev in the south which the Russians claim as part of Novorossiya.

Yet another implication is that failure on the part of Ukraine would lead Moscow to continue the war until Ukraine gets partitioned as West & East where almost the entire agricultural regions and areas full of critical minerals would fall into the hands of Russians. In fact, 117 of the 120 most widely used minerals and metals, and major sources of fossil fuels lie in the central and eastern part of Ukraine where Russia is advancing and Ukrainian is retreating.

Third implication is that the terms of the peace would change if and when Russia takes more real estate in the central part of Ukraine if the battle continues.

What the West must do?

As in game theory, America led west must consider three nodes:

1. The terms under the present circumstances are good for both parties

2. Minimize the maximum loss the West could suffer and call it quits

3. Abandon the sunk cost fallacy afflicting America & her allies who have poured more than US$ 150 Billion into the Ukraine war.

Geoeconomics compulsion

Follow the mini-max strategy and stand to gain geoeconomics advantages by working in a reformed Ukraine perhaps in co-operation with Russian companies engaged in minerals, fossil fuels and farming!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist