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Monday, 31 March 2025

Money, is never a culprit in geoeconomics

But the use or pursuit of it might become an issue in crime or social acceptance. When someone parks his money in a bank, his action by itself cannot be questioned or investigated unless there is considerable evidence to prove it as an ill-gotten one. For all sense and purposes money must be treated as neutral asset!

A country’s reserve held in foreign banks, therefore must be strictly treated as neutral one if geoeconomics has to function smoothly. Of late, central banks in the western hemisphere have threatened in a chorus that Russian reserves would be seized or deemed forfeited for the alleged war crimes perpetrated by the Russian state and/or her soldiers.

Normally reserves are held by a sovereign country in its own name elsewhere in foreign lands in order to facilitate international trade in goods and services. Moreover, these reserves are in normal course invested in interest bearing securities issued by the host country entities including treasury department or banks that deal in corporate bond markets.

The over-riding concept is therefore, the reserves are of sovereign nature in that these cannot be frozen or subjected to any and every measure of seizure unless a pathway to such drastic actions is authorised under international law and accepted by both parties owner and holder appearing as litigants in an international court that has jurisdiction over this type of confiscation or seizure.

Any arbitrary decision taken by holding bank, contravenes the basic tenets in law and practice of international banking & finance and would be construed as mere theft. Put it other way, frozen money is in fact stolen money.

In the case of Russia, there are few depositaries who hold her assets. For example EuroClear Bank, the central securities depository based in Belgium, holds frozen Russian assets estimated to be in the region of US$ 207 Billion in Euro, US$ 67 Billion in American Dollar and US$ 37 Billion in British Pound.

Outside the three biggies holdings of US$ 36 billion yen, US$ 19 Billion in Canadian dollars, US$ 6 Billion in Australian dollars and US$ 1.8 Billion in Singapore dollars along with Swiss Franc less than US$ one billion are reported from elsewhere in the globe.

Here are few contentious issues in relation to geoeconomics that need to be addressed on the footing of treating money as a culprit:

1. Could these frozen assets be declared as seized ones and be transferred to another country?

2. Could the income generated by the frozen assets by way of interest & dividends be also declared as such and be used at the discretion of the banks holding these assets? Incidentally, Russian assets in Euro Clear alone has generated an income around US$ 4 Billion last year.

3. How the rest of the world take this type of highway robbery? Would they continue to park money in the West or migrate to another safe haven?

4. Who would benefit from such migration, China or other BRICS nations?

This is indeed Catch- 22 situation in geoeconomics!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

Friday, 28 March 2025

Why US exit from Europe is a nightmare?

Under the protective arms of the American Zeus, Europe so far had a peaceful sleep I mean in the night. US disinterest in continuing this godfather relationship has sent shivers through the spines of Europeans. The last thing they wish is the exit of their night-watchman. What is the reality test?

Trump does not brook nonsense. He wants to make America great again. Having learnt bitter lessons during his Trump 1.0 he is hell-bent in downsizing the deep state with in USA and demolishing the liberal, global, selfish cabal that hitherto operated freely to the detriment of US national interest. More than geopolitics or geo-strategy it is geoeconomics compulsion that forces Trump to reverse US presence in Europe and her posture as defender of Europe.

The nightmare stalks both the strong and the weak equally across the wide European landscape.  Already the continent is in bad shape economically. Even the so-called engine of European prosperity, Germany is shearing at her seems. For most Europeans America was not only sugar daddy but the second home to take refuge in case of turmoil of political or economic nature.

Europe has to produce a lot to sell. A major destination of her high-valued exports, undoubtedly is America.  Collectively European Union exported a colossal USD 545 Billion to the US in 2024, with top billings in medical and pharmaceutical products, motor vehicles and machinery. Interestingly US is the EU's largest partner for exports. 

Can china fill the gap if USA applies the brake in EU exports to the latter?

Look at the maths. In 2024 total exports volume of Europe to China was USD 230 Billion. Putting it another way, America buys more than 2.4 times what Chinese buy from Europe.  Interestingly the items exported to China include mainly auto components, machinery & chemicals that serve as inputs or intermediate items for the Chinese manufacturing in a big way. True enough, there are other manufactured items such as motor cars but these are not essentially big deals for the Union.

If you compare the volume as well as the purpose of the products exported to America and China by EU, it is clear that end-users of European products in USA are citizens whereas the major portion of EU products go for industrial use in China. While Americans pay for the EU imports via sweat and labour making a big hole in their purse, as well as purchasing powers, EU exports to China goes to enhance production quality of Chinese finished products which in turn acts as the biggest rivals for American goods in the world market.

Sizing upon this geoeconomics threat, Trump is not wasting any more time in indulgence with EU. Progressive curtailing of EU exports is therefore a feasible option to leverage US-EU trade balance and at the same time buy more goods from China cheaply.

In any case EU is going to be the net loser in this export-import framework. America increases her bargaining power vis-a-vis China and EU to continue contending with exports of intermediate goods to China. Value edition would be for the Chinese side, of course, but part of which can be transferred to America via price discounting.

That is the wonder in geoeconomics!

  

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

Thursday, 27 March 2025

USA Withdrawing from Europe: business strategy behind the move

Americans are conveying to the Europeans that they intend to downsize their military presence in the European theatre in not so many words as such. Now USA demands that Europe should take most of the defence burden and fend for themselves. My analysis:

Donald Trump is sometimes blunt and sometimes not straightforward when it comes to the question of transatlantic relation. During Trump 1.0 presidency, Trump was vocal in Brussels on May 25, 2017 where he coerced the fellow members of NATO alliance to increase the defence expenditure by at-least 2% of the GDP of each member. He had also bemoaned the fact that “massive amount of money was owed“by them to USA, which is footing the defence bill.

In Trump 2.0 he is going somewhat gung-ho as he is demanding that the EU defence budget be around 5% of the GDP. He hinted that if European members fail there could be possible re-thinking of stationing of US troops in European soil.

In the midst of the Ukraine war, with perfect timing, he has called for Europe to re-arm a sure sign that US role in European Security Architecture is on the way out.  Even though frantic cries are heard from weaker European nations, European Union as a whole realized the unfolding situation and is now trying to cough out a defence budget of US$ 850 Billion to be spent by 20

Now let me turn to Trump business strategy behind the move:

1. Trump’s intention is honourable. He seeks to lessen the military burden   of protecting others and use the saved funds to improve infra-structure within America where roads, railways and canals need long delayed overhaul.

2. The key understanding is that the allocated EU budget cannot be entirely spent within Europe. Because Military industrial complex (MIC) there is not much developed to the level of efficiency and efficacy in USA. More than 60,000 companies are in MIC in America. The corresponding figure for EU is 2,765 firms. Defence budget for USA is USD 841 Billion while EU spends only USD 316 Billion.

3. In terms of Turnover, America returns a massive USD 830 Billion dwarfing EU at USD 316 Billion. A salient feature is the related percentage. America exports account for 40% of the global output whereas EU clobbers up one –third of the global output.

4. That said, EU is in a precarious position balancing her needs for defence products and the proposed budgeted expenditure. In point of fact, EU has to import major part of her defence needs from abroad. Russia is out of question. Therefore the main source is America. Since European soldiers are well trained in handling US armaments the logical conclusion is for EU to source the deficit wants from America and America alone.

Hurrah! Trump! The deal maker. His business strategy of hitting two fruits with one stone is just perfect: his defence exports grows his infra-structure get spruced!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist