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Monday 5 June 2023

Reading Putin mind through Prigozhin

Winston Churchill said this about Russia in 1939: “A riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma".  Still it rings true. Look at how Putin and Yevgeney Prigozhin relate to each other. The latter lends expression to what Putin thinks. Here we go to unravel little bit of this enigma:

Yevgeney is a seasoned task master. Having spent quite a number of years in penal colony for his misdemeanours, Prigozhin has a great come back to celebrity life thanks to Vladimir Putin who handpicked him as his private chef when he formed his catering business namely “Concord Catering”. As they say in Eastern wisdom, a man’s heart is via food, Prigozhin became one of the closest confidante of Putin as time passed.

In no time Prigozhin started to expand and in 2014 he found the mercenary “Wagner Group” that functioned on the bidding of Vladimir. Libya was the showcase where the private army cut its teeth. Later it took part in a large-scale military operation against ISIL cells in the Syrian Desert. As Ukraine operations began Prigozhin got an important assignment: Commander of the Meat grinder in Bakhmut. Emerging after the gruelling war, Prigozhin who spent most of the time with his men in the battle field knew what the war looks like and how it should be persecuted.

Recently he spoke surprisingly tough words about what Russia has to do to win the special military operations. Here are four vectors:

1. Declare a state of war throughout Russia. This, if happens, is the second time after the end of WWII Russia places the whole country on war footing

2. Mobilize additional strength of 2 million soldiers to fill military cadre in two ways. Uniformed soldiers and mercenaries

3. Russian society as a whole be mobilized to support the war effort

4. Present military structure be reformed to have several divisions in North, East, South and West

Western news media jumped to dismiss his statements as rubbish and that he is making wild remarks. The truth of the matter is very simple. It is Vladimir Putin who wants these facts be brought out to the notice of Russian people and the world at large.

To my mind there are two elements:

Geoeconomics: Earlier, Surovikin helped Russia to pedal on the war economy with no stone unturned to get revenue stream up and running without hiccup, within and without Russia proper (Read). Now the extension is society wide.

Business strategy: By enlarging the armed forces, Russian soldiers will not only be in Belarus but on the borders of all those countries abutting Ukraine, namely Rumania, Hungary, Moldova, Slovakia and finally Poland. Whether these countries like it or not they have got to do business with Russia first and foremost.

I am not hiding a simple fact: Either Ukraine is totally under Russian control or the Rump State of Ukraine would be dysfunctional to such an extent that these countries have to be beholden to Russia to provide security as well as business opportunities!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

 

 

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