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Friday 30 June 2023

Russia, an elephant in the room

Joe Biden unwittingly brought forth “Make Russia Great Again” a reality by fighting proxy war against Russia. He failed to realize that by his foolish action he would allow Russia to enter the room as much stronger an elephant than what she was previously.

This is also connected to the ancient Tamil wisdom that says “An elephant does not know her strength until it is provoked”. True to this maxim, Russia which remained as a one-dimensional power during much of the cold war and for a decade or two after the collapse of USSR, was given a make-up by Vladimir Putin.

Still Russia remained just second to European Union, not to mention USA. His re-calibration of the state of Russian Federation could not bring her to the super power status she enjoyed earlier. Then enters Joe Biden with his experience of fifty years in politics backing him. Yet he misread the Russian special military operations by unleashing covert operations with his Western allies to corner the bear.

Initially Russia was taken aback; the intended operation in Ukraine did not go well. Putin was caught in a deadly clap trap where he has to fight America and fifty or so allies arraigned against him in an existential crisis. The fact that cannot be overlooked is Russians are masters of maskirovka strategy along with matryoshka dolls where a set of wooden dolls of decreasing size are placed one inside another. It is all confusing to outsiders prodding them to make wrong moves.

Putin then made the right moves to regain initiative to beat his opponents decisively and once gain got back the lost glory of superpower. Here are quite some of the gleanings that demonstrate Russia is back as the elephant in the room and that too a stronger one not only in military sense but in geoeconomics too.

As the west chased Russia from their camp Russia went to the East where she was welcomed with out-stretched arms. Taps of oil and gas pipelines to the West were turned off. The largest one Nord Stream was blown out due to terrorist activity. Cheap oil & gas was flowing to the East continuously. The kind of economic leverage Germany made using cheap gas for industrial growth & prosperity was suddenly lost and then found in the factories of East. Despite price caps and other trickery imposed by west, the East got a better deal at deeply discounted price. Evidently, Saudi Arabia was importing cheap crude oil from Russia and exporting refined oil to the West at premium price.

Overnight Russia became a giant in the commodity market. As most of the Ukraine grain harvest was systematically being destroyed, Russian grain replaced that with her own surplus and thereafter exporting to countries in Asia & Africa. Apart from agriculture & farming the industrial production saw a major up-tick. War industrial production worked apace to bring out weapons for own defence and also for exports. Consumer goods were in plenty too.

Whereas malls in Germany had empty shelves Russia public had plenty in their supermarkets that too in affordable price. Inflation was controlled and public who required cash if any were immediately given sufficient Ruble to tide over any deficit. The West is reeling in recession while Russia is beaming in boom!

 

Cheers!

 

Muthu Ashraff Rajulu

Business Strategist

Mobile: + 94 777 265677

E-mail: cosmicgems@gmail.com

Blog:   Business Strategist

 

 


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